Bundesliga· Germany · Regular Season - 4

Bayern München

7-0

FT

Union Berlin

Bayern München vs Union Berlin prediction

📅 Fri 18 Sep 2026 🏟️ Allianz Arena, Munich 🧑‍⚖️ B. Brand

Prediction

● Live data

62%

Bayern München

32%

Draw

5%

Union Berlin

Bayern München 62% · draw 32% · Union Berlin 5%. We pick 1 (Home Win). Most likely score 2-0, over 2.5 at 73%, BTTS at 59%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won

Home Win · 1

1 Confidence 61%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✓

162%

Fair 1.60Odds —

Home win

✓

Home win62%

Fair 1.60Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win5%

Fair 18.62Odds —

Double chance

✓

1X95%

Fair 1.06Odds —

Draw no bet

✓

Home DNB92%

Fair 1.09Odds —

Win either half

✓

Home WEH83%

Fair 1.20Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.589%

Fair 1.12Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✓

Over 2.573%

Fair 1.37Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✓

Over 3.553%

Fair 1.90Odds —

Both teams to score

✕

GG (Yes)59%

Fair 1.68Odds —

Correct score

✕

2-09%

Fair 11.40Odds —

Banker tip

✓

1X95%

Fair 1.06Odds —

Super single

✓

162%

Fair 1.60Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	62%	1.60	—
Home win	Home win	62%	1.60	—
Away win	Away win	5%	18.62	—
Double chance	1X	95%	1.06	—
Draw no bet	Home DNB	92%	1.09	—
Win either half	Home WEH	83%	1.20	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	89%	1.12	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	73%	1.37	—
Under 3.5	Over 3.5	53%	1.90	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	59%	1.68	—
Correct score	2-0	9%	11.40	—
Banker	1X	95%	1.06	—
Super single	1	62%	1.60	—

Form & head to head

Bayern München

WDW

78%

Form

39%

Attack

89%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)7 / 2

Season W-D-L2-1-0

Clean sheets · failed to score1 · 1

Union Berlin

DLL

11%

Form

22%

Attack

44%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)4 / 10

Season W-D-L0-1-2

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 1

Team comparison

Form

88%

13%

Attack

64%

36%

Defence

83%

17%

Poisson model

100%

0%

Head to head

85%

15%

Goals

72%

28%

Overall

78%

21%

Head to head

7

Home wins

3

Draws

0

Away wins

18 Sep 26 Bayern München 7 - 0 Union Berlin

21 Mar 26 Bayern München 4 - 0 Union Berlin

3 Dec 25 Union Berlin 2 - 3 Bayern München

8 Nov 25 Union Berlin 2 - 2 Bayern München

15 Mar 25 Union Berlin 1 - 1 Bayern München

2 Nov 24 Bayern München 3 - 0 Union Berlin

3.70 goals per meeting · BTTS in 5 of 10 · over 2.5 in 7 of 10.

Match statistics

68%Ball Possession32%

23Total Shots3

15Shots on Goal2

9Corner Kicks2

12Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

2Goalkeeper Saves6

3.71Expected goals (xG)0.34

Key events

18'⚽ J. Musiala Normal Goal
38'🟨 Felix Uduokhai Yellow Card
39'⚽ H. Kane Penalty
42'🟨 Rani Khedira Yellow Card
43'⚽ M. Olise Normal Goal
45'+2🟨 Dayot Upamecano Yellow Card
54'⚽ H. Kane Normal Goal
70'⚽ I. Saibari Normal Goal
73'⚽ M. Olise Normal Goal
76'⚽ M. Olise Normal Goal
78'🟨 Livan Burcu Yellow Card

Match preview

Bayern München vs Union Berlin: match preview

Bayern München host Union Berlin in the Bundesliga (Regular Season - 4) at Allianz Arena on Friday 18 September, kick-off 19:30. The match finished 7-0.

Form guide

Bayern München have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 3 league games, averaging 2.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. Union Berlin have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 3 league games, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 3.3 conceded. At home this season Bayern München have 1 win from 1 game, while Union Berlin have won 0 of 1 game on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 2.8 goals for Bayern München and 1 for Union Berlin, 3.80 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 89% chance, over 2.5 73% and both teams to score 59%. The single most likely score is 2-0.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Bayern München won 7, Union Berlin won 0 and 3 ended level, with 3.7 goals per game and both teams scoring in 5.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Home Win (1) at 61% confidence. The model also leans towards 1X (95%), Home DNB (92%), Over 1.5 (89%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Bayern München 62%, draw 32%, Union Berlin 5%.
Expected goals: 2.8 vs 1.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Bayern München have 1 clean sheets this season; Union Berlin have 0.
API-Football model advice: Combo Winner : Bayern München and +2.5 goals.

See more Bundesliga numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 02:43 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bayern München vs Union Berlin?

Our main pick is Home Win (1) with 61% confidence. Win probabilities are Bayern München 62%, draw 32% and Union Berlin 5%.

Will both teams score in Bayern München vs Union Berlin?

Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in Bayern München vs Union Berlin?

We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 73% chance and the most likely score is 2-0.

When and where is Bayern München vs Union Berlin?

Friday 18 September 2026 at 19:30, Allianz Arena, Munich.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.