La Liga· Spain · Regular Season - 4

Rayo Vallecano

3-2

FT

Racing Santander

Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander prediction

📅 Sat 5 Sep 2026 🏟️ Municipal de Butarque, Leganes 🧑‍⚖️ Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez

Prediction

● Live data

36%

Rayo Vallecano

33%

Draw

32%

Racing Santander

Rayo Vallecano 36% · draw 33% · Racing Santander 32%. We pick 1X (Double Chance). Most likely score 1-2, over 2.5 at 71%, BTTS at 69%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won

Double Chance · 1X

1X Confidence 69%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✓

136%

Fair 2.82Odds —

Home win

✓

Home win36%

Fair 2.82Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win32%

Fair 3.15Odds —

Double chance

✓

1X68%

Fair 1.47Odds —

Draw no bet

✓

Home DNB53%

Fair 1.89Odds —

Win either half

✕

Away WEH68%

Fair 1.47Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.588%

Fair 1.13Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✓

Over 2.571%

Fair 1.40Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✓

Over 3.551%

Fair 1.98Odds —

Both teams to score

✓

GG (Yes)69%

Fair 1.45Odds —

Correct score

✕

1-29%

Fair 11.14Odds —

Banker tip

✓

Over 1.588%

Fair 1.13Odds —

Super single

✓

Home DNB53%

Fair 1.89Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	36%	2.82	—
Home win	Home win	36%	2.82	—
Away win	Away win	32%	3.15	—
Double chance	1X	68%	1.47	—
Draw no bet	Home DNB	53%	1.89	—
Win either half	Away WEH	68%	1.47	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	88%	1.13	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	71%	1.40	—
Under 3.5	Over 3.5	51%	1.98	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	69%	1.45	—
Correct score	1-2	9%	11.14	—
Banker	Over 1.5	88%	1.13	—
Super single	Home DNB	53%	1.89	—

Form & head to head

Rayo Vallecano

LDL

11%

Form

33%

Attack

33%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)4 / 8

Season W-D-L0-1-2

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 0

Racing Santander

DLW

44%

Form

42%

Attack

58%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)5 / 5

Season W-D-L1-1-1

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 1

Team comparison

Form

20%

80%

Attack

44%

56%

Defence

38%

62%

Poisson model

100%

0%

Head to head

91%

9%

Goals

69%

31%

Overall

52%

47%

Head to head

4

Home wins

1

Draws

0

Away wins

5 Sep 26 Rayo Vallecano 3 - 2 Racing Santander

20 Jul 20 Racing Santander 1 - 2 Rayo Vallecano

13 Sep 19 Rayo Vallecano 2 - 0 Racing Santander

3 Mar 12 Rayo Vallecano 4 - 2 Racing Santander

1 Oct 11 Racing Santander 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano

3.60 goals per meeting · BTTS in 4 of 5 · over 2.5 in 3 of 5.

Match statistics

49%Ball Possession51%

16Total Shots9

10Shots on Goal4

9Corner Kicks6

15Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

2Goalkeeper Saves6

1.61Expected goals (xG)0.48

Key events

-5'🟥 Jorge de Frutos Red Card
2'🟨 Óscar Valentín Yellow Card
4'⚽ S. Canales Normal Goal
17'⚽ A. Ratiu Normal Goal
25'🟨 Yassir Zabiri Yellow Card
28'⚽ P. Garcia Normal Goal
35'🟨 Iñigo Vicente Yellow Card
39'🟨 Sergio Camello Yellow Card
43'⚽ S. Camello Normal Goal
47'⚽ S. Camello Normal Goal
66'🟨 Florian Lejeune Yellow Card
85'🟥 Fran Pérez Red Card

Match preview

Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander: match preview

Rayo Vallecano host Racing Santander in the La Liga (Regular Season - 4) at Municipal de Butarque on Saturday 5 September, kick-off 17:30. The match finished 3-2.

Form guide

Rayo Vallecano have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 3 league games, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 2.7 conceded. Racing Santander have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 3 league games, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. At home this season Rayo Vallecano have 0 wins from 1 game, while Racing Santander have won 0 of 1 game on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.5 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 2.2 for Racing Santander, 3.70 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 88% chance, over 2.5 71% and both teams to score 69%. The single most likely score is 1-2.

Head to head

In their last 5 meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 4, Racing Santander won 0 and 1 ended level, with 3.6 goals per game and both teams scoring in 4.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) at 69% confidence. The model also leans towards Over 1.5 (88%), Over 2.5 (71%), GG (Yes) (69%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 36%, draw 33%, Racing Santander 32%.
Expected goals: 1.5 vs 2.2.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Rayo Vallecano have 0 clean sheets this season; Racing Santander have 0.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : Rayo Vallecano or draw.

See more La Liga numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 02:43 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) with 69% confidence. Win probabilities are Rayo Vallecano 36%, draw 33% and Racing Santander 32%.

Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?

Our model gives both teams to score a 69% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?

We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 71% chance and the most likely score is 1-2.

When and where is Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander?

Saturday 5 September 2026 at 17:30, Municipal de Butarque, Leganes.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.