Premier League· England · Regular Season - 4

Leeds

4-1

FT

Newcastle

Leeds vs Newcastle prediction

📅 Mon 14 Sep 2026 🏟️ Elland Road, Leeds 🧑‍⚖️ Michael Salisbury, England

Prediction

● Live data

21%

Leeds

36%

Draw

43%

Newcastle

Leeds 21% · draw 36% · Newcastle 43%. We pick X2 (Double Chance). Most likely score 1-1, over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 51%.

🎯 Our pick✗ Lost

Double Chance · X2

X2 Confidence 71%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✕

243%

Fair 2.32Odds —

Home win

✓

Home win21%

Fair 4.78Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win43%

Fair 2.32Odds —

Double chance

✕

X279%

Fair 1.26Odds —

Draw no bet

✕

Away DNB67%

Fair 1.48Odds —

Win either half

✕

Away WEH55%

Fair 1.83Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.571%

Fair 1.40Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✕

Under 2.554%

Fair 1.84Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.576%

Fair 1.32Odds —

Both teams to score

✓

GG (Yes)51%

Fair 1.98Odds —

Correct score

✕

1-113%

Fair 7.85Odds —

Banker tip

✕

X279%

Fair 1.26Odds —

Super single

✕

Away WEH55%

Fair 1.83Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	2	43%	2.32	—
Home win	Home win	21%	4.78	—
Away win	Away win	43%	2.32	—
Double chance	X2	79%	1.26	—
Draw no bet	Away DNB	67%	1.48	—
Win either half	Away WEH	55%	1.83	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	71%	1.40	—
Over 2.5	Under 2.5	54%	1.84	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	76%	1.32	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	51%	1.98	—
Correct score	1-1	13%	7.85	—
Banker	X2	79%	1.26	—
Super single	Away WEH	55%	1.83	—

Form & head to head

Leeds

WDD

56%

Form

38%

Attack

75%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)3 / 2

Season W-D-L1-2-0

Clean sheets · failed to score1 · 0

Newcastle

DWD

56%

Form

75%

Attack

50%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)6 / 4

Season W-D-L1-2-0

Clean sheets · failed to score1 · 0

Team comparison

Form

50%

Attack

33%

67%

Defence

67%

33%

Poisson model

0%

100%

Head to head

25%

75%

Goals

42%

58%

Overall

43%

56%

Head to head

3

Home wins

5

Draws

2

Away wins

14 Sep 26 Leeds 4 - 1 Newcastle

7 Jan 26 Newcastle 4 - 3 Leeds

30 Aug 25 Leeds 0 - 0 Newcastle

13 May 23 Leeds 2 - 2 Newcastle

31 Dec 22 Newcastle 0 - 0 Leeds

22 Jan 22 Leeds 0 - 1 Newcastle

3.10 goals per meeting · BTTS in 7 of 10 · over 2.5 in 5 of 10.

Match statistics

50%Ball Possession50%

15Total Shots7

6Shots on Goal5

5Corner Kicks5

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

4Goalkeeper Saves3

2.08Expected goals (xG)0.88

Key events

32'⚽ L. Miley Own Goal
34'⚽ D. Calvert-Lewin Normal Goal
44'🟨 Dominic Calvert-Lewin Yellow Card
45'⚽ D. Calvert-Lewin Normal Goal
54'🟨 Jacob Murphy Yellow Card
59'⚽ N. Okafor Normal Goal
90'+1🟨 Tino Livramento Yellow Card
90'⚽ B. Toure Normal Goal

Match preview

Leeds vs Newcastle: match preview

Leeds host Newcastle in the Premier League (Regular Season - 4) at Elland Road on Monday 14 September, kick-off 20:00. The match finished 4-1.

Form guide

Leeds have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 3 league games, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. Newcastle have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 3 league games, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. At home this season Leeds have 0 wins from 1 game, while Newcastle have won 1 of 1 game on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.15 goals for Leeds and 1.35 for Newcastle, 2.50 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 71% chance, over 2.5 46% and both teams to score 51%. The single most likely score is 1-1.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Leeds won 3, Newcastle won 2 and 5 ended level, with 3.1 goals per game and both teams scoring in 7.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) at 71% confidence. The model also leans towards X2 (79%), Under 3.5 (76%), Over 1.5 (71%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Leeds 21%, draw 36%, Newcastle 43%.
Expected goals: 1.15 vs 1.35.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Leeds have 1 clean sheets this season; Newcastle have 1.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : draw or Newcastle.

See more Premier League numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 02:35 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Leeds vs Newcastle?

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) with 71% confidence. Win probabilities are Leeds 21%, draw 36% and Newcastle 43%.

Will both teams score in Leeds vs Newcastle?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in Leeds vs Newcastle?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance and the most likely score is 1-1.

When and where is Leeds vs Newcastle?

Monday 14 September 2026 at 20:00, Elland Road, Leeds.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.