Ligue 1· France · Regular Season - 2

Lille

2-2

FT

Paris Saint Germain

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain prediction

📅 Fri 28 Aug 2026 🏟️ Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre Mauroy, Lille 🧑‍⚖️ Eric Wattellier, France

Prediction

● Live data

48%

Lille

28%

Draw

24%

Paris Saint Germain

Lille 48% · draw 28% · Paris Saint Germain 24%. We pick 1X (Double Chance). Most likely score 1-0, over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 55%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won

Double Chance · 1X

1X Confidence 55%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✕

148%

Fair 2.09Odds —

Home win

✕

Home win48%

Fair 2.09Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win24%

Fair 4.14Odds —

Double chance

✓

1X76%

Fair 1.32Odds —

Draw no bet

✕

Home DNB66%

Fair 1.50Odds —

Win either half

✓

Home WEH72%

Fair 1.39Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.580%

Fair 1.25Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✓

Over 2.558%

Fair 1.73Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.565%

Fair 1.55Odds —

Both teams to score

✓

GG (Yes)55%

Fair 1.83Odds —

Correct score

✕

1-010%

Fair 10.04Odds —

Banker tip

✓

Over 1.580%

Fair 1.25Odds —

Super single

✕

Home DNB66%

Fair 1.50Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	48%	2.09	—
Home win	Home win	48%	2.09	—
Away win	Away win	24%	4.14	—
Double chance	1X	76%	1.32	—
Draw no bet	Home DNB	66%	1.50	—
Win either half	Home WEH	72%	1.39	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	80%	1.25	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	58%	1.73	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	65%	1.55	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	55%	1.83	—
Correct score	1-0	10%	10.04	—
Banker	Over 1.5	80%	1.25	—
Super single	Home DNB	66%	1.50	—

Form & head to head

Lille

W

100%

Form

22%

Attack

100%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)2 / 0

Season W-D-L1-0-0

Clean sheets · failed to score1 · 0

Paris Saint Germain

D

33%

Form

22%

Attack

78%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)2 / 2

Season W-D-L0-1-0

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 0

Team comparison

Form

75%

25%

Attack

50%

Defence

100%

0%

Poisson model

0%

Head to head

7%

93%

Goals

22%

78%

Overall

38%

61%

Head to head

0

Home wins

3

Draws

7

Away wins

28 Aug 26 Lille 2 - 2 Paris Saint Germain

16 Jan 26 Paris Saint Germain 3 - 0 Lille

5 Oct 25 Lille 1 - 1 Paris Saint Germain

1 Mar 25 Paris Saint Germain 4 - 1 Lille

1 Sep 24 Lille 1 - 3 Paris Saint Germain

10 Feb 24 Paris Saint Germain 3 - 1 Lille

4.50 goals per meeting · BTTS in 9 of 10 · over 2.5 in 8 of 10.

Match statistics

27%Ball Possession73%

9Total Shots18

4Shots on Goal4

0Corner Kicks5

11Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

2Goalkeeper Saves2

1.27Expected goals (xG)1.44

Key events

21'⚽ H. Haraldsson Normal Goal
39'🟨 Fabián Ruiz Yellow Card
52'🟨 Benjamin André Yellow Card
84'⚽ D. Bakwa Normal Goal
90'+4🟨 Romain Perraud Yellow Card
90'⚽ Vitinha Normal Goal
90'⚽ Marquinhos Normal Goal

Match preview

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain: match preview

Lille host Paris Saint Germain in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 2) at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre Mauroy on Friday 28 August, kick-off 19:45. The match finished 2-2.

Form guide

Lille have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 1 league game, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded. Paris Saint Germain have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 1 league game, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 2 goals for Lille and 1 for Paris Saint Germain, 3.00 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 80% chance, over 2.5 58% and both teams to score 55%. The single most likely score is 1-0.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Lille won 0, Paris Saint Germain won 7 and 3 ended level, with 4.5 goals per game and both teams scoring in 9.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) at 55% confidence. The model also leans towards Over 1.5 (80%), 1X (76%), Home WEH (72%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Lille 48%, draw 28%, Paris Saint Germain 24%.
Expected goals: 2 vs 1.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Lille have 1 clean sheets this season; Paris Saint Germain have 0.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : Lille or draw.

See more Ligue 1 numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 02:43 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) with 55% confidence. Win probabilities are Lille 48%, draw 28% and Paris Saint Germain 24%.

Will both teams score in Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance and the most likely score is 1-0.

When and where is Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?

Friday 28 August 2026 at 19:45, Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre Mauroy, Lille.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.