Ligue 1· France · Regular Season - 1

Marseille

4-0

FT

Strasbourg

Marseille vs Strasbourg prediction

📅 Fri 21 Aug 2026 🏟️ CEPAC Vélodrome, Marseille 🧑‍⚖️ Ruddy Buquet, France

Prediction

● Live data

24%

Marseille

52%

Draw

24%

Strasbourg

Marseille 24% · draw 52% · Strasbourg 24%. We pick 1X (Double Chance). Most likely score 0-0, over 2.5 at 1%, BTTS at 3%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won

Double Chance · 1X

1X Confidence 58%

Get today's VIP slip

All prediction categories

1X2

✕

X52%

Fair 1.94Odds —

Home win

✓

Home win24%

Fair 4.13Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win24%

Fair 4.13Odds —

Double chance

✓

1X76%

Fair 1.32Odds —

Draw no bet

✓

Home DNB50%

Fair 2.00Odds —

Win either half

✓

Home WEH17%

Fair 6.04Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✕

Under 1.594%

Fair 1.07Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✕

Under 2.599%

Fair 1.01Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.5100%

Fair 1.00Odds —

Both teams to score

✓

NG (No)97%

Fair 1.03Odds —

Correct score

✕

0-067%

Fair 1.49Odds —

Banker tip

✕

Under 3.5100%

Fair 1.00Odds —

Super single

✕

X52%

Fair 1.94Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	X	52%	1.94	—
Home win	Home win	24%	4.13	—
Away win	Away win	24%	4.13	—
Double chance	1X	76%	1.32	—
Draw no bet	Home DNB	50%	2.00	—
Win either half	Home WEH	17%	6.04	—
Over 1.5	Under 1.5	94%	1.07	—
Over 2.5	Under 2.5	99%	1.01	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	100%	1.00	—
BTTS	NG (No)	97%	1.03	—
Correct score	0-0	67%	1.49	—
Banker	Under 3.5	100%	1.00	—
Super single	X	52%	1.94	—

Form & head to head

Marseille

0%

Form

0%

Attack

0%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)0 / 0

Season W-D-L0-0-0

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 0

Strasbourg

0%

Form

0%

Attack

0%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)0 / 0

Season W-D-L0-0-0

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 0

Team comparison

Form

0%

Attack

0%

Defence

0%

Poisson model

0%

Head to head

50%

Goals

50%

Overall

50%

Head to head

3

Home wins

6

Draws

1

Away wins

21 Aug 26 Marseille 4 - 0 Strasbourg

14 Feb 26 Marseille 2 - 2 Strasbourg

26 Sep 25 Strasbourg 1 - 2 Marseille

19 Jan 25 Marseille 1 - 1 Strasbourg

29 Sep 24 Strasbourg 1 - 0 Marseille

12 Jan 24 Marseille 1 - 1 Strasbourg

3.00 goals per meeting · BTTS in 7 of 10 · over 2.5 in 6 of 10.

Match statistics

67%Ball Possession33%

14Total Shots5

8Shots on Goal2

3Corner Kicks4

6Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

2Goalkeeper Saves4

1.86Expected goals (xG)0.18

Key events

46'⚽ A. Gouiri Normal Goal
48'🟨 Samuel Amo-Ameyaw Yellow Card
58'📺 Samir El Mourabet Card upgrade
59'🟥 Samir El Mourabet Red Card
61'🟨 Sékou Mara Yellow Card
65'📺 Igor Paixão Penalty confirmed
68'⚽ A. Gouiri Penalty
79'🟨 Nayef Aguerd Yellow Card
89'⚽ K. Abdallah Normal Goal
90'⚽ P. Hojbjerg Normal Goal

Match preview

Marseille vs Strasbourg: match preview

Marseille host Strasbourg in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 1) at CEPAC Vélodrome on Friday 21 August, kick-off 19:45. The match finished 4-0.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 0.2 goals for Marseille and 0.2 for Strasbourg, 0.40 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 6% chance, over 2.5 1% and both teams to score 3%. The single most likely score is 0-0.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Marseille won 3, Strasbourg won 1 and 6 ended level, with 3.0 goals per game and both teams scoring in 7.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) at 58% confidence. The model also leans towards Under 3.5 (100%), Under 2.5 (99%), NG (No) (97%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Marseille 24%, draw 52%, Strasbourg 24%.
Expected goals: 0.2 vs 0.2.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Marseille have 0 clean sheets this season; Strasbourg have 0.
API-Football model advice: No predictions available.

See more Ligue 1 numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 02:43 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Marseille vs Strasbourg?

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) with 58% confidence. Win probabilities are Marseille 24%, draw 52% and Strasbourg 24%.

Will both teams score in Marseille vs Strasbourg?

Our model gives both teams to score a 3% chance, so the lean is NG (No).

How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Strasbourg?

We expect about 0.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 1% chance and the most likely score is 0-0.

When and where is Marseille vs Strasbourg?

Friday 21 August 2026 at 19:45, CEPAC Vélodrome, Marseille.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.