Eredivisie· Netherlands · Regular Season - 6

Fortuna Sittard

1-5

FT

Ajax

Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax prediction

📅 Sat 12 Sep 2026 🏟️ Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard 🧑‍⚖️ Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands

Prediction

● Live data

16%

Fortuna Sittard

33%

Draw

51%

Ajax

Fortuna Sittard 16% · draw 33% · Ajax 51%. We pick X2 (Double Chance). Most likely score 1-2, over 2.5 at 66%, BTTS at 63%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won

Double Chance · X2

X2 Confidence 74%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✓

251%

Fair 1.94Odds —

Home win

✕

Home win16%

Fair 6.33Odds —

Away win

✓

Away win51%

Fair 1.94Odds —

Double chance

✓

X284%

Fair 1.19Odds —

Draw no bet

✓

Away DNB77%

Fair 1.31Odds —

Win either half

✓

Away WEH71%

Fair 1.41Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.585%

Fair 1.17Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✓

Over 2.566%

Fair 1.51Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.556%

Fair 1.79Odds —

Both teams to score

✓

GG (Yes)63%

Fair 1.59Odds —

Correct score

✕

1-210%

Fair 10.37Odds —

Banker tip

✓

Over 1.585%

Fair 1.17Odds —

Super single

✓

Over 2.566%

Fair 1.51Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	2	51%	1.94	—
Home win	Home win	16%	6.33	—
Away win	Away win	51%	1.94	—
Double chance	X2	84%	1.19	—
Draw no bet	Away DNB	77%	1.31	—
Win either half	Away WEH	71%	1.41	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	85%	1.17	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	66%	1.51	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	56%	1.79	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	63%	1.59	—
Correct score	1-2	10%	10.37	—
Banker	Over 1.5	85%	1.17	—
Super single	Over 2.5	66%	1.51	—

Form & head to head

Fortuna Sittard

DWLWW

67%

Form

100%

Attack

18%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)11 / 9

Season W-D-L3-1-1

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 1

Ajax

WDWL

58%

Form

82%

Attack

55%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)9 / 5

Season W-D-L2-1-1

Clean sheets · failed to score2 · 0

Team comparison

Form

59%

41%

Attack

55%

45%

Defence

36%

64%

Poisson model

0%

100%

Head to head

7%

93%

Goals

20%

80%

Overall

35%

64%

Head to head

0

Home wins

2

Draws

8

Away wins

12 Sep 26 Fortuna Sittard 1 - 5 Ajax

14 Feb 26 Ajax 4 - 1 Fortuna Sittard

6 Dec 25 Fortuna Sittard 1 - 3 Ajax

9 Feb 25 Fortuna Sittard 0 - 2 Ajax

18 Sep 24 Ajax 5 - 0 Fortuna Sittard

10 Mar 24 Ajax 2 - 2 Fortuna Sittard

4.00 goals per meeting · BTTS in 5 of 10 · over 2.5 in 8 of 10.

Match statistics

35%Ball Possession65%

8Total Shots27

4Shots on Goal11

3Corner Kicks11

5Fouls12

1Yellow Cards5

6Goalkeeper Saves3

0.71Expected goals (xG)4.13

Key events

6'🟨 Jorthy Mokio Yellow Card
23'🟨 Youri Baas Yellow Card
35'⚽ J. Brandt Normal Goal
44'🟨 Lequincio Zeefuik Yellow Card
52'⚽ A. Descotte Normal Goal
62'⚽ T. Kehrer Normal Goal
64'🟨 Steven Berghuis Yellow Card
71'🟨 Caio Henrique Yellow Card
73'⚽ D. Klaassen Normal Goal
79'⚽ K. Dolberg Normal Goal
81'🟨 Abdellah Ouazane Yellow Card
90'⚽ Y. Baas Normal Goal

Match preview

Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax: match preview

Fortuna Sittard host Ajax in the Eredivisie (Regular Season - 6) at Fortuna Sittard Stadion on Saturday 12 September, kick-off 19:00. The match finished 1-5.

Form guide

Fortuna Sittard have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 league games, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Ajax have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 league games, averaging 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. At home this season Fortuna Sittard have 1 win from 2 games, while Ajax have won 2 of 2 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.25 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 2.15 for Ajax, 3.40 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 85% chance, over 2.5 66% and both teams to score 63%. The single most likely score is 1-2.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Fortuna Sittard won 0, Ajax won 8 and 2 ended level, with 4.0 goals per game and both teams scoring in 5.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) at 74% confidence. The model also leans towards Over 1.5 (85%), X2 (84%), Away DNB (77%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 16%, draw 33%, Ajax 51%.
Expected goals: 1.25 vs 2.15.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Fortuna Sittard have 0 clean sheets this season; Ajax have 2.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : draw or Ajax.

See more Eredivisie numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 02:43 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) with 74% confidence. Win probabilities are Fortuna Sittard 16%, draw 33% and Ajax 51%.

Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?

Our model gives both teams to score a 63% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?

We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 66% chance and the most likely score is 1-2.

When and where is Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?

Saturday 12 September 2026 at 19:00, Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.