Serie A· Italy · Regular Season - 4

Lecce

3-2

FT

Monza

Lecce vs Monza prediction

📅 Sun 13 Sep 2026 🏟️ Via del Mare, Lecce 🧑‍⚖️ Valerio Crezzini, Italy

Prediction

● Live data

49%

Lecce

33%

Draw

18%

Monza

Lecce 49% · draw 33% · Monza 18%. We pick 1X (Double Chance). Most likely score 1-1, over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 63%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won

Double Chance · 1X

1X Confidence 73%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✓

149%

Fair 2.05Odds —

Home win

✓

Home win49%

Fair 2.05Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win18%

Fair 5.59Odds —

Double chance

✓

1X82%

Fair 1.22Odds —

Draw no bet

✓

Home DNB73%

Fair 1.37Odds —

Win either half

✓

Home WEH66%

Fair 1.51Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.584%

Fair 1.19Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✓

Over 2.564%

Fair 1.56Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.558%

Fair 1.72Odds —

Both teams to score

✓

GG (Yes)63%

Fair 1.58Odds —

Correct score

✕

1-110%

Fair 10.35Odds —

Banker tip

✓

Over 1.584%

Fair 1.19Odds —

Super single

✓

Home WEH66%

Fair 1.51Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	49%	2.05	—
Home win	Home win	49%	2.05	—
Away win	Away win	18%	5.59	—
Double chance	1X	82%	1.22	—
Draw no bet	Home DNB	73%	1.37	—
Win either half	Home WEH	66%	1.51	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	84%	1.19	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	64%	1.56	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	58%	1.72	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	63%	1.58	—
Correct score	1-1	10%	10.35	—
Banker	Over 1.5	84%	1.19	—
Super single	Home WEH	66%	1.51	—

Form & head to head

Lecce

WLL

33%

Form

11%

Attack

72%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)2 / 5

Season W-D-L1-0-2

Clean sheets · failed to score1 · 2

Monza

LLD

11%

Form

22%

Attack

56%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)4 / 8

Season W-D-L0-1-2

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 0

Team comparison

Form

75%

25%

Attack

33%

67%

Defence

62%

38%

Poisson model

0%

100%

Head to head

75%

25%

Goals

63%

38%

Overall

61%

38%

Head to head

5

Home wins

4

Draws

1

Away wins

13 Sep 26 Lecce 3 - 2 Monza

16 Feb 25 Monza 0 - 0 Lecce

15 Dec 24 Lecce 2 - 1 Monza

27 Apr 24 Lecce 1 - 1 Monza

17 Sep 23 Monza 1 - 1 Lecce

28 May 23 Monza 0 - 1 Lecce

2.00 goals per meeting · BTTS in 5 of 10 · over 2.5 in 3 of 10.

Match statistics

39%Ball Possession61%

7Total Shots19

3Shots on Goal11

4Corner Kicks6

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards0

8Goalkeeper Saves0

1.08Expected goals (xG)2.79

Key events

3'⚽ L. Coulibaly Normal Goal
10'⚽ Tiago Gabriel Normal Goal
20'⚽ R. Mangas Normal Goal
21'⚽ L. Coulibaly Normal Goal
38'🟨 Konan N’Dri Yellow Card
89'⚽ E. Zeballos Normal Goal
90'🟨 Danilo Veiga Yellow Card

Match preview

Lecce vs Monza: match preview

Lecce host Monza in the Serie A (Regular Season - 4) at Via del Mare on Sunday 13 September, kick-off 14:00. The match finished 3-2.

Form guide

Lecce have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 3 league games, averaging 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Monza have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 3 league games, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 2.7 conceded. At home this season Lecce have 0 wins from 1 game, while Monza have won 0 of 2 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.97 goals for Lecce and 1.33 for Monza, 3.30 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 84% chance, over 2.5 64% and both teams to score 63%. The single most likely score is 1-1.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Lecce won 5, Monza won 1 and 4 ended level, with 2.0 goals per game and both teams scoring in 5.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) at 73% confidence. The model also leans towards Over 1.5 (84%), 1X (82%), Home DNB (73%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Lecce 49%, draw 33%, Monza 18%.
Expected goals: 1.97 vs 1.33.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Lecce have 1 clean sheets this season; Monza have 0.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : Lecce or draw.

See more Serie A numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 02:41 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lecce vs Monza?

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) with 73% confidence. Win probabilities are Lecce 49%, draw 33% and Monza 18%.

Will both teams score in Lecce vs Monza?

Our model gives both teams to score a 63% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in Lecce vs Monza?

We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 64% chance and the most likely score is 1-1.

When and where is Lecce vs Monza?

Sunday 13 September 2026 at 14:00, Via del Mare, Lecce.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.