Serie A· Brazil · Regular Season - 29

Santos

23:30

🕒 23:30

Flamengo

Santos vs Flamengo prediction

📅 Thu 8 Oct 2026 🏟️ Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos 🧑‍⚖️ Anderson Daronco

Prediction

● Live data

19%

Santos

35%

Draw

45%

Flamengo

Santos 19% · draw 35% · Flamengo 45%. We pick Draw (Draw). Most likely score 1-1, over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 55%.

🎯 Our pick

Draw · Draw

Draw @ 3.75 Confidence 27%

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All prediction categories

1X2

245%

Fair 2.20Odds 1.30

Home win

Home win19%

Fair 5.13Odds 1.83

Away win

Away win45%

Fair 2.20Odds 1.30

Double chance

X281%

Fair 1.24Odds 1.22

Draw no bet

Away DNB70%

Fair 1.43Odds —

Win either half

Away WEH59%

Fair 1.69Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

Over 1.576%

Fair 1.32Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.551%

Fair 1.95Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

Under 3.571%

Fair 1.41Odds —

Both teams to score

GG (Yes)55%

Fair 1.83Odds 1.67

Correct score

1-112%

Fair 8.38Odds 6.50

Banker tip

X281%

Fair 1.24Odds 1.22

Super single

Away WEH59%

Fair 1.69Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Match winner

13.90

X3.50

21.83

Double chance

1X1.85

121.30

X21.22

Both teams to score

Yes1.67

No2.10

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	2	45%	2.20	1.30
Home win	Home win	19%	5.13	1.83
Away win	Away win	45%	2.20	1.30
Double chance	X2	81%	1.24	1.22
Draw no bet	Away DNB	70%	1.43	—
Win either half	Away WEH	59%	1.69	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	76%	1.32	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.95	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	71%	1.41	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	55%	1.83	1.67
Correct score	1-1	12%	8.38	6.50
Banker	X2	81%	1.24	1.22
Super single	Away WEH	59%	1.69	—

Form & head to head

Santos

WWWWW

100%

Form

71%

Attack

64%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)10 / 5

Season W-D-L11-8-9

Clean sheets · failed to score6 · 3

Flamengo

WWWWW

100%

Form

71%

Attack

86%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)10 / 2

Season W-D-L18-6-4

Clean sheets · failed to score12 · 2

Team comparison

Form

50%

Attack

50%

Defence

29%

71%

Poisson model

29%

71%

Head to head

40%

60%

Goals

44%

56%

Overall

40%

59%

Head to head

3

Home wins

0

Draws

7

Away wins

5 Apr 26 Flamengo 3 - 1 Santos

9 Nov 25 Flamengo 3 - 2 Santos

17 Jul 25 Santos 1 - 0 Flamengo

2 Nov 23 Flamengo 1 - 2 Santos

25 Jun 23 Santos 2 - 3 Flamengo

26 Oct 22 Flamengo 3 - 2 Santos

3.60 goals per meeting · BTTS in 7 of 10 · over 2.5 in 8 of 10.

Match preview

Santos vs Flamengo: match preview

Santos host Flamengo in the Serie A (Regular Season - 29) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira on Thursday 8 October, kick-off 23:30.

Form guide

Santos have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 league games, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Flamengo have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 league games, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded. At home this season Santos have 6 wins from 14 games, while Flamengo have won 8 of 14 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.18 goals for Santos and 1.55 for Flamengo, 2.73 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 76% chance, over 2.5 51% and both teams to score 55%. The single most likely score is 1-1.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Santos won 3, Flamengo won 7 and 0 ended level, with 3.6 goals per game and both teams scoring in 7.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Draw (Draw) at 27% confidence, priced at 3.75. The model also leans towards X2 (81%), Over 1.5 (76%), Under 3.5 (71%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Santos 19%, draw 35%, Flamengo 45%.
Expected goals: 1.18 vs 1.55.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Santos have 6 clean sheets this season; Flamengo have 12.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : draw or Flamengo.

See more Serie A numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 02:09 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Santos vs Flamengo?

Our main pick is Draw (Draw) with 27% confidence. Win probabilities are Santos 19%, draw 35% and Flamengo 45%.

Will both teams score in Santos vs Flamengo?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in Santos vs Flamengo?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance and the most likely score is 1-1.

When and where is Santos vs Flamengo?

Thursday 8 October 2026 at 23:30, Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.