Serie A· Brazil · Regular Season - 29

Cruzeiro

0-0

42'

Sao Paulo

Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo prediction

📅 Thu 8 Oct 2026 🏟️ Estádio Mineirão, Bello Harisanta 🧑‍⚖️ Wilton Sampaio

Prediction

● Live data

28%

Cruzeiro

35%

Draw

37%

Sao Paulo

Cruzeiro 28% · draw 35% · Sao Paulo 37%. We pick Draw (Draw). Most likely score 1-1, over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 54%.

🎯 Our pick

Draw · Draw

Draw @ 3.69 Confidence 27%

Get today's VIP slip

All prediction categories

1X2

237%

Fair 2.69Odds 1.29

Home win

Value

Home win28%

Fair 3.61Odds 4.50

Away win

Away win37%

Fair 2.69Odds 1.29

Double chance

Value

X272%

Fair 1.38Odds 2.00

Draw no bet

Away DNB57%

Fair 1.74Odds —

Win either half

Home WEH59%

Fair 1.70Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

Over 1.575%

Fair 1.33Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.551%

Fair 1.97Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

Under 3.571%

Fair 1.40Odds —

Both teams to score

GG (Yes)54%

Fair 1.84Odds 1.80

Correct score

1-112%

Fair 8.32Odds 6.00

Banker tip

Over 1.575%

Fair 1.33Odds —

Super single

Value

X272%

Fair 1.38Odds 2.00

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Match winner

11.75

X3.40

24.50

Double chance

1X1.18

121.29

X22.00

Both teams to score

Yes1.80

No1.95

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	2	37%	2.69	1.29
Home win	Home win	28%	3.61	4.50	Value
Away win	Away win	37%	2.69	1.29
Double chance	X2	72%	1.38	2.00	Value
Draw no bet	Away DNB	57%	1.74	—
Win either half	Home WEH	59%	1.70	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	75%	1.33	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.97	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	71%	1.40	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	54%	1.84	1.80
Correct score	1-1	12%	8.32	6.00
Banker	Over 1.5	75%	1.33	—
Super single	X2	72%	1.38	2.00	Value

Form & head to head

Cruzeiro

WLWLW

60%

Form

71%

Attack

43%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)10 / 8

Season W-D-L13-6-9

Clean sheets · failed to score5 · 4

Sao Paulo

WWLWL

60%

Form

43%

Attack

64%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)6 / 5

Season W-D-L10-6-12

Clean sheets · failed to score6 · 6

Team comparison

Form

50%

Attack

63%

38%

Defence

38%

62%

Poisson model

67%

33%

Head to head

38%

62%

Goals

36%

64%

Overall

48%

51%

Head to head

3

Home wins

3

Draws

4

Away wins

4 Apr 26 Sao Paulo 4 - 1 Cruzeiro

31 Aug 25 Cruzeiro 1 - 0 Sao Paulo

13 Apr 25 Sao Paulo 1 - 1 Cruzeiro

16 Jan 25 Cruzeiro 1 - 1 Sao Paulo

15 Sep 24 Cruzeiro 0 - 1 Sao Paulo

2 Jun 24 Sao Paulo 2 - 0 Cruzeiro

1.80 goals per meeting · BTTS in 4 of 10 · over 2.5 in 1 of 10.

Match statistics

60%Ball Possession40%

9Total Shots4

2Shots on Goal1

3Corner Kicks5

6Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

1Goalkeeper Saves2

Key events

21'🟨 Wendell Yellow Card
24'🟨 Gabriel Rojas Yellow Card

Match preview

Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo: match preview

Cruzeiro host Sao Paulo in the Serie A (Regular Season - 29) at Estádio Mineirão on Thursday 8 October, kick-off 01:30.

Form guide

Cruzeiro have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 league games, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Sao Paulo have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. At home this season Cruzeiro have 7 wins from 14 games, while Sao Paulo have won 2 of 14 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.53 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.18 for Sao Paulo, 2.71 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 75% chance, over 2.5 51% and both teams to score 54%. The single most likely score is 1-1.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Cruzeiro won 3, Sao Paulo won 4 and 3 ended level, with 1.8 goals per game and both teams scoring in 4.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Draw (Draw) at 27% confidence, priced at 3.69. The model also leans towards Over 1.5 (75%), X2 (72%), Under 3.5 (71%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Cruzeiro 28%, draw 35%, Sao Paulo 37%.
Expected goals: 1.53 vs 1.18.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Cruzeiro have 5 clean sheets this season; Sao Paulo have 6.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : draw or Sao Paulo.

See more Serie A numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 02:11 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?

Our main pick is Draw (Draw) with 27% confidence. Win probabilities are Cruzeiro 28%, draw 35% and Sao Paulo 37%.

Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance and the most likely score is 1-1.

When and where is Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo?

Thursday 8 October 2026 at 01:30, Estádio Mineirão, Bello Harisanta.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.