Serie A· Brazil · Regular Season - 25

Atletico Paranaense

3-3

FT

Fluminense

Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense prediction

📅 Sun 30 Aug 2026 🏟️ Arena da Baixada, Curitiba 🧑‍⚖️ Felipe Fernandes de Lima, Brazil

Prediction

● Live data

41%

Atletico Paranaense

31%

Draw

28%

Fluminense

Atletico Paranaense 41% · draw 31% · Fluminense 28%. We pick 1X (Double Chance). Most likely score 1-0, over 2.5 at 42%, BTTS at 47%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won

Double Chance · 1X

1X Confidence 59%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✕

141%

Fair 2.41Odds —

Home win

✕

Home win41%

Fair 2.41Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win28%

Fair 3.62Odds —

Double chance

✓

1X72%

Fair 1.38Odds —

Draw no bet

✕

Home DNB60%

Fair 1.67Odds —

Win either half

✕

Home WEH60%

Fair 1.68Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.568%

Fair 1.46Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✕

Under 2.558%

Fair 1.73Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.578%

Fair 1.27Odds —

Both teams to score

✕

NG (No)53%

Fair 1.87Odds —

Correct score

✕

1-013%

Fair 7.53Odds —

Banker tip

✕

Under 3.578%

Fair 1.27Odds —

Super single

✕

Home DNB60%

Fair 1.67Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	41%	2.41	—
Home win	Home win	41%	2.41	—
Away win	Away win	28%	3.62	—
Double chance	1X	72%	1.38	—
Draw no bet	Home DNB	60%	1.67	—
Win either half	Home WEH	60%	1.68	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	68%	1.46	—
Over 2.5	Under 2.5	58%	1.73	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	78%	1.27	—
BTTS	NG (No)	53%	1.87	—
Correct score	1-0	13%	7.53	—
Banker	Under 3.5	78%	1.27	—
Super single	Home DNB	60%	1.67	—

Form & head to head

Atletico Paranaense

WDWDW

73%

Form

44%

Attack

83%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)8 / 3

Season W-D-L13-5-6

Clean sheets · failed to score8 · 6

Fluminense

DDDWW

60%

Form

39%

Attack

72%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)7 / 5

Season W-D-L11-8-5

Clean sheets · failed to score4 · 3

Team comparison

Form

55%

45%

Attack

53%

47%

Defence

63%

38%

Poisson model

71%

29%

Head to head

15%

85%

Goals

36%

64%

Overall

48%

51%

Head to head

2

Home wins

3

Draws

5

Away wins

30 Aug 26 Atletico Paranaense 3 - 3 Fluminense

15 Mar 26 Fluminense 3 - 2 Atletico Paranaense

1 Dec 24 Atletico Paranaense 1 - 1 Fluminense

22 Oct 24 Fluminense 1 - 0 Atletico Paranaense

27 Aug 23 Atletico Paranaense 2 - 2 Fluminense

22 Apr 23 Fluminense 2 - 0 Atletico Paranaense

3.00 goals per meeting · BTTS in 6 of 10 · over 2.5 in 5 of 10.

Match statistics

47%Ball Possession53%

17Total Shots12

8Shots on Goal6

8Corner Kicks3

15Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

3Goalkeeper Saves5

1.92Expected goals (xG)0.56

Key events

35'⚽ Leozinho Normal Goal
38'⚽ Hulk Normal Goal
45'+5🟨 Ganso Yellow Card
48'⚽ Gastón Benavídez Normal Goal
49'🟨 Gastón Benavídez Yellow Card
64'⚽ Agustín Canobbio Normal Goal
75'🟨 Nonato Yellow Card
78'⚽ Ignácio Normal Goal
80'🟨 Kevin Viveros Yellow Card
87'📺 Kevin Viveros Goal cancelled
90'+5⚽ Kevin Viveros Penalty

Match preview

Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense: match preview

Atletico Paranaense host Fluminense in the Serie A (Regular Season - 25) at Arena da Baixada on Sunday 30 August, kick-off 15:00. The match finished 3-3.

Form guide

Atletico Paranaense have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. Fluminense have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. At home this season Atletico Paranaense have 8 wins from 12 games, while Fluminense have won 2 of 11 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.42 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.95 for Fluminense, 2.37 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 68% chance, over 2.5 42% and both teams to score 47%. The single most likely score is 1-0.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Atletico Paranaense won 2, Fluminense won 5 and 3 ended level, with 3.0 goals per game and both teams scoring in 6.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) at 59% confidence. The model also leans towards Under 3.5 (78%), 1X (72%), Over 1.5 (68%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 41%, draw 31%, Fluminense 28%.
Expected goals: 1.42 vs 0.95.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Atletico Paranaense have 8 clean sheets this season; Fluminense have 4.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : Atletico Paranaense or draw.

See more Serie A numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 02:09 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) with 59% confidence. Win probabilities are Atletico Paranaense 41%, draw 31% and Fluminense 28%.

Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?

Our model gives both teams to score a 47% chance, so the lean is NG (No).

How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance and the most likely score is 1-0.

When and where is Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?

Sunday 30 August 2026 at 15:00, Arena da Baixada, Curitiba.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.