Serie A· Brazil · Regular Season - 23

Chapecoense-sc

3-3

FT

Bahia

Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia prediction

📅 Sun 16 Aug 2026 🏟️ Arena Condá, Chapecó 🧑‍⚖️ Daiane Caroline Muniz Dos Santos, Brazil

Prediction

● Live data

16%

Chapecoense-sc

35%

Draw

50%

Bahia

Chapecoense-sc 16% · draw 35% · Bahia 50%. We pick X2 (Double Chance). Most likely score 0-1, over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 49%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won

Double Chance · X2

X2 Confidence 77%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✕

250%

Fair 2.01Odds —

Home win

✕

Home win16%

Fair 6.41Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win50%

Fair 2.01Odds —

Double chance

✓

X284%

Fair 1.18Odds —

Draw no bet

✕

Away DNB76%

Fair 1.31Odds —

Win either half

✓

Away WEH66%

Fair 1.52Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.573%

Fair 1.37Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✕

Under 2.552%

Fair 1.91Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.574%

Fair 1.35Odds —

Both teams to score

✕

NG (No)51%

Fair 1.96Odds —

Correct score

✕

0-113%

Fair 8.00Odds —

Banker tip

✓

X284%

Fair 1.18Odds —

Super single

✓

Away WEH66%

Fair 1.52Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	2	50%	2.01	—
Home win	Home win	16%	6.41	—
Away win	Away win	50%	2.01	—
Double chance	X2	84%	1.18	—
Draw no bet	Away DNB	76%	1.31	—
Win either half	Away WEH	66%	1.52	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	73%	1.37	—
Over 2.5	Under 2.5	52%	1.91	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	74%	1.35	—
BTTS	NG (No)	51%	1.96	—
Correct score	0-1	13%	8.00	—
Banker	X2	84%	1.18	—
Super single	Away WEH	66%	1.52	—

Form & head to head

Chapecoense-sc

LLLDL

7%

Form

23%

Attack

15%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)3 / 11

Season W-D-L1-7-13

Clean sheets · failed to score1 · 8

Bahia

WDDDD

47%

Form

31%

Attack

85%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)4 / 2

Season W-D-L8-9-5

Clean sheets · failed to score7 · 3

Team comparison

Form

13%

88%

Attack

43%

57%

Defence

15%

85%

Poisson model

32%

68%

Head to head

40%

60%

Goals

33%

67%

Overall

29%

70%

Head to head

2

Home wins

4

Draws

4

Away wins

16 Aug 26 Chapecoense-sc 3 - 3 Bahia

17 Jul 26 Bahia 2 - 0 Chapecoense-sc

1 Oct 22 Chapecoense-sc 3 - 1 Bahia

14 Jun 22 Bahia 0 - 1 Chapecoense-sc

25 Oct 21 Bahia 3 - 0 Chapecoense-sc

4 Jul 21 Chapecoense-sc 0 - 2 Bahia

2.30 goals per meeting · BTTS in 4 of 10 · over 2.5 in 3 of 10.

Match statistics

35%Ball Possession65%

12Total Shots19

3Shots on Goal4

3Corner Kicks5

16Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

3Goalkeeper Saves0

1.25Expected goals (xG)2.43

Key events

13'⚽ Alejo Véliz Penalty
19'⚽ Giovanni Augusto Normal Goal
42'⚽ Kauan Own Goal
48'⚽ Marcinho Normal Goal
65'⚽ Nicolás Acevedo Normal Goal
71'⚽ Tulio Eduardo Silva de Oliveira Normal Goal
84'🟨 Mateo Sanabria Yellow Card
89'🟨 Camilo Yellow Card
90'+2🟨 Erick Pulga Yellow Card

Match preview

Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia: match preview

Chapecoense-sc host Bahia in the Serie A (Regular Season - 23) at Arena Condá on Sunday 16 August, kick-off 15:00. The match finished 3-3.

Form guide

Chapecoense-sc have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 league games, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. Bahia have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 5 league games, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded. At home this season Chapecoense-sc have 1 win from 10 games, while Bahia have won 4 of 10 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 0.93 goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.65 for Bahia, 2.58 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 73% chance, over 2.5 48% and both teams to score 49%. The single most likely score is 0-1.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Chapecoense-sc won 2, Bahia won 4 and 4 ended level, with 2.3 goals per game and both teams scoring in 4.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) at 77% confidence. The model also leans towards X2 (84%), Away DNB (76%), Under 3.5 (74%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 16%, draw 35%, Bahia 50%.
Expected goals: 0.93 vs 1.65.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Chapecoense-sc have 1 clean sheets this season; Bahia have 7.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : draw or Bahia.

See more Serie A numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 02:10 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) with 77% confidence. Win probabilities are Chapecoense-sc 16%, draw 35% and Bahia 50%.

Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?

Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance, so the lean is NG (No).

How many goals will there be in Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance and the most likely score is 0-1.

When and where is Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?

Sunday 16 August 2026 at 15:00, Arena Condá, Chapecó.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.