Serie A· Brazil · Regular Season - 1

Chapecoense-sc

4-2

FT

Santos

Chapecoense-sc vs Santos prediction

📅 Thu 29 Jan 2026 🏟️ Arena Condá, Chapecó 🧑‍⚖️ Savio Pereira Sampaio, Brazil

Prediction

● Live data

8%

Chapecoense-sc

60%

Draw

33%

Santos

Chapecoense-sc 8% · draw 60% · Santos 33%. We pick X2 (Double Chance). Most likely score 0-0, over 2.5 at 1%, BTTS at 3%.

🎯 Our pick✗ Lost

Double Chance · X2

X2 Confidence 83%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✕

X60%

Fair 1.67Odds —

Home win

✓

Home win8%

Fair 13.22Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win33%

Fair 3.07Odds —

Double chance

✕

X292%

Fair 1.08Odds —

Draw no bet

✕

Away DNB81%

Fair 1.23Odds —

Win either half

✓

Home WEH17%

Fair 6.04Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✕

Under 1.594%

Fair 1.07Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✕

Under 2.599%

Fair 1.01Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.5100%

Fair 1.00Odds —

Both teams to score

✕

NG (No)97%

Fair 1.03Odds —

Correct score

✕

0-067%

Fair 1.49Odds —

Banker tip

✕

Under 3.5100%

Fair 1.00Odds —

Super single

✕

X60%

Fair 1.67Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	X	60%	1.67	—
Home win	Home win	8%	13.22	—
Away win	Away win	33%	3.07	—
Double chance	X2	92%	1.08	—
Draw no bet	Away DNB	81%	1.23	—
Win either half	Home WEH	17%	6.04	—
Over 1.5	Under 1.5	94%	1.07	—
Over 2.5	Under 2.5	99%	1.01	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	100%	1.00	—
BTTS	NG (No)	97%	1.03	—
Correct score	0-0	67%	1.49	—
Banker	Under 3.5	100%	1.00	—
Super single	X	60%	1.67	—

Form & head to head

Chapecoense-sc

0%

Form

0%

Attack

0%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)0 / 0

Season W-D-L0-0-0

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 0

Santos

0%

Form

0%

Attack

0%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)0 / 0

Season W-D-L0-0-0

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 0

Team comparison

Form

0%

Attack

0%

Defence

0%

Poisson model

0%

Head to head

20%

80%

Goals

27%

73%

Overall

23%

76%

Head to head

3

Home wins

2

Draws

5

Away wins

25 Jul 26 Santos 2 - 2 Chapecoense-sc

29 Jan 26 Chapecoense-sc 4 - 2 Santos

17 Oct 24 Chapecoense-sc 3 - 2 Santos

2 Jul 24 Santos 1 - 0 Chapecoense-sc

17 Nov 21 Santos 2 - 0 Chapecoense-sc

1 Aug 21 Chapecoense-sc 0 - 1 Santos

2.30 goals per meeting · BTTS in 3 of 10 · over 2.5 in 3 of 10.

Match statistics

34%Ball Possession66%

8Total Shots25

4Shots on Goal5

1Corner Kicks14

10Fouls5

2Yellow Cards3

3Goalkeeper Saves0

1.80Expected goals (xG)1.23

Key events

7'🟨 Alexis Duarte Yellow Card
15'🟨 Gabriel Brazão Yellow Card
16'⚽ Walter Clar Penalty
40'🟨 Marcos Vinícius Yellow Card
45'+1⚽ Gabriel Menino Normal Goal
63'🟨 Camilo Yellow Card
67'⚽ Álvaro Barreal Normal Goal
73'⚽ Higor Meritão Normal Goal
80'⚽ Jean Carlos Normal Goal
81'🟨 Gabriel Menino Yellow Card
90'⚽ Rafael Carvalheira Normal Goal

Match preview

Chapecoense-sc vs Santos: match preview

Chapecoense-sc host Santos in the Serie A (Regular Season - 1) at Arena Condá on Thursday 29 January, kick-off 00:00. The match finished 4-2.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 0.2 goals for Chapecoense-sc and 0.2 for Santos, 0.40 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 6% chance, over 2.5 1% and both teams to score 3%. The single most likely score is 0-0.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Chapecoense-sc won 3, Santos won 5 and 2 ended level, with 2.3 goals per game and both teams scoring in 3.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) at 83% confidence. The model also leans towards Under 3.5 (100%), Under 2.5 (99%), NG (No) (97%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 8%, draw 60%, Santos 33%.
Expected goals: 0.2 vs 0.2.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Chapecoense-sc have 0 clean sheets this season; Santos have 0.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : draw or Santos.

See more Serie A numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 02:10 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Santos?

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) with 83% confidence. Win probabilities are Chapecoense-sc 8%, draw 60% and Santos 33%.

Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Santos?

Our model gives both teams to score a 3% chance, so the lean is NG (No).

How many goals will there be in Chapecoense-sc vs Santos?

We expect about 0.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 1% chance and the most likely score is 0-0.

When and where is Chapecoense-sc vs Santos?

Thursday 29 January 2026 at 00:00, Arena Condá, Chapecó.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.