Birinci Dasta· Azerbaijan · Regular Season - 4

Səbail

12:30

🕒 12:30

Karvan

Səbail vs Karvan prediction

📅 Thu 8 Oct 2026 🏟️ ASCO Arena, Baku

Prediction

● Live data

31%

Səbail

31%

Draw

38%

Karvan

Səbail 31% · draw 31% · Karvan 38%. We pick Over 1.5 (Accurate Football Prediction Site - ekepredict.com). Most likely score 0-1, over 2.5 at 43%, BTTS at 48%.

🎯 Our pick

Accurate Football Prediction Site - ekepredict.com · Over 1.5

Over 1.5 @ 1.30 Confidence 77%

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All prediction categories

1X2

238%

Fair 2.63Odds 1.25

Home win

Value

Home win31%

Fair 3.23Odds 3.75

Away win

Away win38%

Fair 2.63Odds 1.25

Double chance

Value

X269%

Fair 1.45Odds 1.83

Draw no bet

Away DNB55%

Fair 1.81Odds —

Win either half

Away WEH58%

Fair 1.71Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

Over 1.569%

Fair 1.45Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

Under 2.557%

Fair 1.76Odds 1.80

Over/Under 3.5

Under 3.578%

Fair 1.28Odds —

Both teams to score

NG (No)52%

Fair 1.91Odds —

Correct score

Value

0-113%

Fair 7.87Odds 11.00

Banker tip

Under 3.578%

Fair 1.28Odds —

Super single

Value

X269%

Fair 1.45Odds 1.83

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Match winner

11.80

X3.40

23.75

Double chance

1X1.20

121.25

X21.83

Goals 2.5

Over2.00

Under1.80

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	2	38%	2.63	1.25
Home win	Home win	31%	3.23	3.75	Value
Away win	Away win	38%	2.63	1.25
Double chance	X2	69%	1.45	1.83	Value
Draw no bet	Away DNB	55%	1.81	—
Win either half	Away WEH	58%	1.71	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	69%	1.45	—
Over 2.5	Under 2.5	57%	1.76	1.80
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	78%	1.28	—
BTTS	NG (No)	52%	1.91	—
Correct score	0-1	13%	7.87	11.00	Value
Banker	Under 3.5	78%	1.28	—
Super single	X2	69%	1.45	1.83	Value

Form & head to head

Səbail

DWW

78%

Form

29%

Attack

86%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)4 / 2

Season W-D-L2-1-0

Clean sheets · failed to score1 · 0

Karvan

WLW

67%

Form

43%

Attack

86%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)6 / 2

Season W-D-L2-0-1

Clean sheets · failed to score2 · 1

Team comparison

Form

54%

46%

Attack

40%

60%

Defence

50%

Poisson model

62%

38%

Head to head

0%

Goals

0%

Overall

51%

48%

Head to head

0

Home wins

0

Draws

0

Away wins

These teams have not met recently.

Match preview

Səbail vs Karvan: match preview

Səbail host Karvan in the Birinci Dasta (Regular Season - 4) at ASCO Arena on Thursday 8 October, kick-off 12:30.

Form guide

Səbail have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 3 league games, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. Karvan have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 3 league games, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. At home this season Səbail have 1 win from 1 game, while Karvan have won 1 of 2 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1 goals for Səbail and 1.4 for Karvan, 2.40 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 69% chance, over 2.5 43% and both teams to score 48%. The single most likely score is 0-1.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Accurate Football Prediction Site - ekepredict.com (Over 1.5) at 77% confidence, priced at 1.30. The model also leans towards Under 3.5 (78%), Over 1.5 (69%), X2 (69%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Səbail 31%, draw 31%, Karvan 38%.
Expected goals: 1 vs 1.4.
Səbail have 1 clean sheets this season; Karvan have 2.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : Səbail or draw.

See more Birinci Dasta numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 00:48 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Səbail vs Karvan?

Our main pick is Accurate Football Prediction Site - ekepredict.com (Over 1.5) with 77% confidence. Win probabilities are Səbail 31%, draw 31% and Karvan 38%.

Will both teams score in Səbail vs Karvan?

Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance, so the lean is NG (No).

How many goals will there be in Səbail vs Karvan?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance and the most likely score is 0-1.

When and where is Səbail vs Karvan?

Thursday 8 October 2026 at 12:30, ASCO Arena, Baku.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.