UEFA Europa Conference League· World · 2nd Qualifying Round

Riga

5-2

FT

Vardar Skopje

Riga vs Vardar Skopje prediction

📅 Tue 28 Jul 2026 🏟️ Skonto stadions, Riga 🧑‍⚖️ G. Kikacheishvili

Prediction

● Live data

54%

Riga

33%

Draw

12%

Vardar Skopje

Riga 54% · draw 33% · Vardar Skopje 12%. We pick 1X (Double Chance). Most likely score 2-1, over 2.5 at 88%, BTTS at 82%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won

Double Chance · 1X

1X Confidence 77%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✓

154%

Fair 1.84Odds —

Home win

✓

Home win54%

Fair 1.84Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win12%

Fair 8.10Odds —

Double chance

✓

1X88%

Fair 1.14Odds —

Draw no bet

✓

Home DNB81%

Fair 1.23Odds —

Win either half

✓

Home WEH74%

Fair 1.36Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.596%

Fair 1.04Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✓

Over 2.588%

Fair 1.14Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✓

Over 3.573%

Fair 1.36Odds —

Both teams to score

✓

GG (Yes)82%

Fair 1.22Odds —

Correct score

✕

2-16%

Fair 16.49Odds —

Banker tip

✓

Over 1.596%

Fair 1.04Odds —

Super single

✓

154%

Fair 1.84Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	54%	1.84	—
Home win	Home win	54%	1.84	—
Away win	Away win	12%	8.10	—
Double chance	1X	88%	1.14	—
Draw no bet	Home DNB	81%	1.23	—
Win either half	Home WEH	74%	1.36	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	96%	1.04	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	88%	1.14	—
Under 3.5	Over 3.5	73%	1.36	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	82%	1.22	—
Correct score	2-1	6%	16.49	—
Banker	Over 1.5	96%	1.04	—
Super single	1	54%	1.84	—

Form & head to head

Riga

W

100%

Form

21%

Attack

86%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)3 / 2

Season W-D-L1-0-0

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 0

Vardar Skopje

L

0%

Form

14%

Attack

79%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)2 / 3

Season W-D-L0-0-1

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 0

Team comparison

Form

100%

0%

Attack

60%

40%

Defence

60%

40%

Poisson model

0%

Head to head

100%

0%

Goals

60%

40%

Overall

60%

40%

Head to head

2

Home wins

0

Draws

0

Away wins

28 Jul 26 Riga 5 - 2 Vardar Skopje

22 Jul 26 Vardar Skopje 2 - 3 Riga

6.00 goals per meeting · BTTS in 2 of 2 · over 2.5 in 2 of 2.

Match preview

Riga vs Vardar Skopje: match preview

Riga host Vardar Skopje in the UEFA Europa Conference League (2nd Qualifying Round) at Skonto stadions on Tuesday 28 July, kick-off 18:00. The match finished 5-2.

Form guide

Riga have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 1 league game, averaging 3.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Vardar Skopje have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 1 league game, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 3 goals for Riga and 2 for Vardar Skopje, 5.00 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 96% chance, over 2.5 88% and both teams to score 82%. The single most likely score is 2-1.

Head to head

In their last 2 meetings, Riga won 2, Vardar Skopje won 0 and 0 ended level, with 6.0 goals per game and both teams scoring in 2.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) at 77% confidence. The model also leans towards Over 1.5 (96%), 1X (88%), Over 2.5 (88%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Riga 54%, draw 33%, Vardar Skopje 12%.
Expected goals: 3 vs 2.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of the last 2 meetings.
Riga have 0 clean sheets this season; Vardar Skopje have 0.
API-Football model advice: Combo Double chance : Riga or draw and +2.5 goals.

See more UEFA Europa Conference League numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 02:41 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Riga vs Vardar Skopje?

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) with 77% confidence. Win probabilities are Riga 54%, draw 33% and Vardar Skopje 12%.

Will both teams score in Riga vs Vardar Skopje?

Our model gives both teams to score a 82% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in Riga vs Vardar Skopje?

We expect about 5.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 88% chance and the most likely score is 2-1.

When and where is Riga vs Vardar Skopje?

Tuesday 28 July 2026 at 18:00, Skonto stadions, Riga.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.