Premijer Liga· Bosnia · Regular Season - 9

Velež

17:00

🕒 17:00

Siroki Brijeg

Velež vs Siroki Brijeg prediction

📅 Fri 9 Oct 2026 🏟️ Stadion Rodjeni, Mostar

Prediction

● Live data

42%

Velež

36%

Draw

22%

Siroki Brijeg

Velež 42% · draw 36% · Siroki Brijeg 22%. We pick Over 1.5 (1.5 Goals). Most likely score 1-1, over 2.5 at 43%, BTTS at 49%.

🎯 Our pick

1.5 Goals · Over 1.5

Over 1.5 @ 1.36 Confidence 74%

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All prediction categories

1X2

Value

142%

Fair 2.39Odds 3.40

Home win

Value

Home win42%

Fair 2.39Odds 3.40

Away win

Away win22%

Fair 4.57Odds 1.28

Double chance

1X78%

Fair 1.28Odds 1.25

Draw no bet

Home DNB66%

Fair 1.52Odds —

Win either half

Home WEH52%

Fair 1.93Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

Over 1.569%

Fair 1.45Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

Under 2.557%

Fair 1.76Odds 1.62

Over/Under 3.5

Under 3.578%

Fair 1.28Odds —

Both teams to score

NG (No)51%

Fair 1.95Odds —

Correct score

1-113%

Fair 7.67Odds 6.50

Banker tip

1X78%

Fair 1.28Odds 1.25

Super single

Home DNB66%

Fair 1.52Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Match winner

12.00

X3.10

23.40

Double chance

1X1.25

121.28

X21.67

Goals 2.5

Over2.25

Under1.62

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	42%	2.39	3.40	Value
Home win	Home win	42%	2.39	3.40	Value
Away win	Away win	22%	4.57	1.28
Double chance	1X	78%	1.28	1.25
Draw no bet	Home DNB	66%	1.52	—
Win either half	Home WEH	52%	1.93	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	69%	1.45	—
Over 2.5	Under 2.5	57%	1.76	1.62
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	78%	1.28	—
BTTS	NG (No)	51%	1.95	—
Correct score	1-1	13%	7.67	6.50
Banker	1X	78%	1.28	1.25
Super single	Home DNB	66%	1.52	—

Form & head to head

Velež

LDLWL

27%

Form

16%

Attack

53%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)3 / 9

Season W-D-L2-1-5

Clean sheets · failed to score2 · 3

Siroki Brijeg

DLLDL

13%

Form

32%

Attack

53%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)6 / 9

Season W-D-L2-3-3

Clean sheets · failed to score1 · 1

Team comparison

Form

67%

33%

Attack

33%

67%

Defence

50%

Poisson model

71%

29%

Head to head

80%

20%

Goals

75%

25%

Overall

62%

37%

Head to head

7

Home wins

0

Draws

3

Away wins

21 Apr 26 Velež 3 - 0 Siroki Brijeg

15 Feb 26 Siroki Brijeg 1 - 0 Velež

11 Feb 26 Velež 2 - 1 Siroki Brijeg

25 Oct 25 Velež 1 - 0 Siroki Brijeg

10 Aug 25 Siroki Brijeg 1 - 3 Velež

28 Mar 25 Siroki Brijeg 2 - 5 Velež

3.00 goals per meeting · BTTS in 5 of 10 · over 2.5 in 6 of 10.

Match preview

Velež vs Siroki Brijeg: match preview

Velež host Siroki Brijeg in the Premijer Liga (Regular Season - 9) at Stadion Rodjeni on Friday 9 October, kick-off 17:00.

Form guide

Velež have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league games, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Siroki Brijeg have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. At home this season Velež have 2 wins from 3 games, while Siroki Brijeg have won 1 of 3 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.25 goals for Velež and 1.15 for Siroki Brijeg, 2.40 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 69% chance, over 2.5 43% and both teams to score 49%. The single most likely score is 1-1.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Velež won 7, Siroki Brijeg won 3 and 0 ended level, with 3.0 goals per game and both teams scoring in 5.

Our verdict

Our main pick is 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) at 74% confidence, priced at 1.36. The model also leans towards 1X (78%), Under 3.5 (78%), Over 1.5 (69%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Velež 42%, draw 36%, Siroki Brijeg 22%.
Expected goals: 1.25 vs 1.15.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Velež have 2 clean sheets this season; Siroki Brijeg have 1.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : Velež or draw.

See more Premijer Liga numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

EE

Written by EkeTips Editorial Team Football Analysis Desk

The EkeTips Editorial Team writes the match previews and predictions published on EkeTips every day. Each preview is built from team form, head-to-head records, goal trends, lineu...

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By EkeTips Editorial Team · Updated 9 Oct 09:01 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Velež vs Siroki Brijeg?

Our main pick is 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) with 74% confidence. Win probabilities are Velež 42%, draw 36% and Siroki Brijeg 22%.

Will both teams score in Velež vs Siroki Brijeg?

Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance, so the lean is NG (No).

How many goals will there be in Velež vs Siroki Brijeg?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance and the most likely score is 1-1.

When and where is Velež vs Siroki Brijeg?

Friday 9 October 2026 at 17:00, Stadion Rodjeni, Mostar.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.