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Liga de Expansión MX· Mexico · Apertura - 12
Alebrijes de Oaxaca logo

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

2-1
FT
Correcaminos Uat logo

Correcaminos Uat

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat prediction

📅 Fri 9 Oct 2026 🧑‍⚖️ H. Solorio Arreola

Prediction

● Live data
20%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
34%
Draw
46%
Correcaminos Uat

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 20% · draw 34% · Correcaminos Uat 46%. We pick X2 (Double Chance). Most likely score 1-1, over 2.5 at 62%, BTTS at 63%.

🎯 Our pick✗ Lost
Double Chance · X2
X2 @ 1.20 Confidence 81%
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All prediction categories

1X2

✕
246%
Fair 2.17Odds 1.22

Home win

✓
Home win20%
Fair 5.00Odds 1.67

Away win

✕
Away win46%
Fair 2.17Odds 1.22

Double chance

✕
X280%
Fair 1.25Odds 1.20

Draw no bet

✕
Away DNB70%
Fair 1.44Odds —

Win either half

✕
Away WEH62%
Fair 1.62Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓
Over 1.583%
Fair 1.21Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✓
Over 2.562%
Fair 1.61Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✓
Under 3.560%
Fair 1.66Odds —

Both teams to score

✓
GG (Yes)63%
Fair 1.59Odds 1.44

Correct score

✕
1-110%
Fair 9.74Odds 7.50

Banker tip

✓
Over 1.583%
Fair 1.21Odds —

Super single

✓
Over 2.562%
Fair 1.61Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Match winner
14.00
X3.90
21.67
Double chance
1X2.10
121.22
X21.20
Both teams to score
Yes1.44
No2.45

Value check

MarketPickProb.FairOdds
1X2246%2.171.22
Home winHome win20%5.001.67
Away winAway win46%2.171.22
Double chanceX280%1.251.20
Draw no betAway DNB70%1.44—
Win either halfAway WEH62%1.62—
Over 1.5Over 1.583%1.21—
Over 2.5Over 2.562%1.61—
Under 3.5Under 3.560%1.66—
BTTSGG (Yes)63%1.591.44
Correct score1-110%9.747.50
BankerOver 1.583%1.21—
Super singleOver 2.562%1.61—

Form & head to head

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

LWLLL
20%
Form
14%
Attack
36%
Defence
Scored / conceded (last 5)3 / 14
Season W-D-L3-1-7
Clean sheets · failed to score3 · 4

Correcaminos Uat

LDLWD
33%
Form
23%
Attack
59%
Defence
Scored / conceded (last 5)5 / 9
Season W-D-L4-4-3
Clean sheets · failed to score3 · 2

Team comparison

Form
38%
63%
Attack
38%
63%
Defence
39%
61%
Poisson model
31%
69%
Head to head
71%
29%
Goals
67%
33%
Overall
47%
53%

Head to head

6
Home wins
2
Draws
2
Away wins
9 Oct 26 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2 - 1 Correcaminos Uat
18 Apr 26 Correcaminos Uat 1 - 3 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
8 Nov 25 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1 - 1 Correcaminos Uat
1 Mar 25 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0 - 1 Correcaminos Uat
13 Sep 24 Correcaminos Uat 1 - 3 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
7 Feb 24 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1 - 0 Correcaminos Uat

2.70 goals per meeting · BTTS in 4 of 10 · over 2.5 in 5 of 10.

Match preview

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat: match preview

Alebrijes de Oaxaca host Correcaminos Uat in the Liga de Expansión MX (Apertura - 12) on Friday 9 October, kick-off 02:00. The match finished 2-1.

Form guide

Alebrijes de Oaxaca have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 league games, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 2.8 conceded. Correcaminos Uat have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. At home this season Alebrijes de Oaxaca have 2 wins from 5 games, while Correcaminos Uat have won 2 of 5 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.4 goals for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.8 for Correcaminos Uat, 3.20 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 83% chance, over 2.5 62% and both teams to score 63%. The single most likely score is 1-1.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 6, Correcaminos Uat won 2 and 2 ended level, with 2.7 goals per game and both teams scoring in 4.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) at 81% confidence, priced at 1.20. The model also leans towards Over 1.5 (83%), X2 (80%), Away DNB (70%).

Key facts

  • Win probabilities: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 20%, draw 34%, Correcaminos Uat 46%.
  • Expected goals: 1.4 vs 1.8.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Alebrijes de Oaxaca have 3 clean sheets this season; Correcaminos Uat have 3.
  • API-Football model advice: Double chance : draw or Correcaminos Uat.

See more Liga de Expansión MX numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

EE
Written by Football Analysis Desk

The EkeTips Editorial Team writes the match previews and predictions published on EkeTips every day. Each preview is built from team form, head-to-head records, goal trends, lineu...

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By · Updated 9 Oct 09:01 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat?
Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) with 81% confidence. Win probabilities are Alebrijes de Oaxaca 20%, draw 34% and Correcaminos Uat 46%.
Will both teams score in Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat?
Our model gives both teams to score a 63% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).
How many goals will there be in Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 62% chance and the most likely score is 1-1.
When and where is Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat?
Friday 9 October 2026 at 02:00.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.
Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

  • Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
  • Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
  • Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
  • Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.