First League· Russia · Regular Season - 13

Arsenal Tula

17:30

🕒 17:30

Spartak Kostroma

Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma prediction

📅 Fri 9 Oct 2026 🏟️ Arsenal Stadium (Tula), Tula

Prediction

● Live data

17%

Arsenal Tula

36%

Draw

47%

Spartak Kostroma

Arsenal Tula 17% · draw 36% · Spartak Kostroma 47%. We pick Over 1.5 (1.5 Goals). Most likely score 0-1, over 2.5 at 42%, BTTS at 45%.

🎯 Our pick

1.5 Goals · Over 1.5

Over 1.5 @ 1.34 Confidence 75%

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All prediction categories

1X2

247%

Fair 2.11Odds 1.32

Home win

Home win17%

Fair 5.99Odds 2.88

Away win

Away win47%

Fair 2.11Odds 1.32

Double chance

Value

X283%

Fair 1.20Odds 1.49

Draw no bet

Away DNB74%

Fair 1.35Odds —

Win either half

Away WEH61%

Fair 1.63Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

Over 1.568%

Fair 1.47Odds 1.34

Over/Under 2.5

Under 2.558%

Fair 1.72Odds 1.61

Over/Under 3.5

Under 3.579%

Fair 1.27Odds 1.17

Both teams to score

NG (No)55%

Fair 1.83Odds 1.81

Correct score

0-114%

Fair 7.23Odds 7.40

Banker tip

Value

X283%

Fair 1.20Odds 1.49

Super single

Away WEH61%

Fair 1.63Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Match winner

12.42

X3.08

22.88

Double chance

1X1.36

121.32

X21.49

Goals 2.5

Over2.21

Under1.61

Both teams to score

Yes1.87

No1.81

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	2	47%	2.11	1.32
Home win	Home win	17%	5.99	2.88
Away win	Away win	47%	2.11	1.32
Double chance	X2	83%	1.20	1.49	Value
Draw no bet	Away DNB	74%	1.35	—
Win either half	Away WEH	61%	1.63	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	68%	1.47	1.34
Over 2.5	Under 2.5	58%	1.72	1.61
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	79%	1.27	1.17
BTTS	NG (No)	55%	1.83	1.81
Correct score	0-1	14%	7.23	7.40
Banker	X2	83%	1.20	1.49	Value
Super single	Away WEH	61%	1.63	—

Form & head to head

Arsenal Tula

LDLDL

13%

Form

71%

Attack

0%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)5 / 12

Season W-D-L3-4-5

Clean sheets · failed to score2 · 5

Spartak Kostroma

WWWWL

80%

Form

71%

Attack

71%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)5 / 2

Season W-D-L7-3-2

Clean sheets · failed to score6 · 2

Team comparison

Form

14%

86%

Attack

50%

Defence

14%

86%

Poisson model

37%

63%

Head to head

29%

71%

Goals

43%

57%

Overall

31%

68%

Head to head

0

Home wins

2

Draws

1

Away wins

21 Jun 26 Arsenal Tula 1 - 1 Spartak Kostroma

25 Apr 26 Spartak Kostroma 1 - 1 Arsenal Tula

13 Sep 25 Arsenal Tula 1 - 2 Spartak Kostroma

2.33 goals per meeting · BTTS in 3 of 3 · over 2.5 in 1 of 3.

Match preview

Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma: match preview

Arsenal Tula host Spartak Kostroma in the First League (Regular Season - 13) at Arsenal Stadium (Tula) on Friday 9 October, kick-off 17:30.

Form guide

Arsenal Tula have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. Spartak Kostroma have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded. At home this season Arsenal Tula have 3 wins from 6 games, while Spartak Kostroma have won 4 of 6 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 0.9 goals for Arsenal Tula and 1.45 for Spartak Kostroma, 2.35 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 68% chance, over 2.5 42% and both teams to score 45%. The single most likely score is 0-1.

Head to head

In their last 3 meetings, Arsenal Tula won 0, Spartak Kostroma won 1 and 2 ended level, with 2.3 goals per game and both teams scoring in 3.

Our verdict

Our main pick is 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) at 75% confidence, priced at 1.34. The model also leans towards X2 (83%), Under 3.5 (79%), Away DNB (74%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Arsenal Tula 17%, draw 36%, Spartak Kostroma 47%.
Expected goals: 0.9 vs 1.45.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of the last 3 meetings.
Arsenal Tula have 2 clean sheets this season; Spartak Kostroma have 6.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : draw or Spartak Kostroma.

See more First League numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

EE

Written by EkeTips Editorial Team Football Analysis Desk

The EkeTips Editorial Team writes the match previews and predictions published on EkeTips every day. Each preview is built from team form, head-to-head records, goal trends, lineu...

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By EkeTips Editorial Team · Updated 9 Oct 09:01 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma?

Our main pick is 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) with 75% confidence. Win probabilities are Arsenal Tula 17%, draw 36% and Spartak Kostroma 47%.

Will both teams score in Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma?

Our model gives both teams to score a 45% chance, so the lean is NG (No).

How many goals will there be in Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance and the most likely score is 0-1.

When and where is Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma?

Friday 9 October 2026 at 17:30, Arsenal Stadium (Tula), Tula.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.