Primeira Liga· Portugal · Regular Season - 8

Moreirense

18:45

🕒 18:45

GIL Vicente

Moreirense vs GIL Vicente prediction

📅 Fri 9 Oct 2026 🏟️ Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas, Guimarães 🧑‍⚖️ Miguel Bertolo Nogueira

Prediction

● Live data

24%

Moreirense

36%

Draw

40%

GIL Vicente

Moreirense 24% · draw 36% · GIL Vicente 40%. We pick Over 1.5 (1.5 Goals). Most likely score 1-1, over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 54%.

🎯 Our pick

1.5 Goals · Over 1.5

Over 1.5 @ 1.35 Confidence 74%

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All prediction categories

1X2

240%

Fair 2.48Odds 1.35

Home win

Home win24%

Fair 4.16Odds 2.20

Away win

Away win40%

Fair 2.48Odds 1.35

Double chance

X276%

Fair 1.32Odds 1.30

Draw no bet

Away DNB63%

Fair 1.60Odds —

Win either half

Home WEH52%

Fair 1.91Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

Over 1.574%

Fair 1.35Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

Under 2.551%

Fair 1.98Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

Under 3.573%

Fair 1.38Odds —

Both teams to score

GG (Yes)54%

Fair 1.86Odds 1.85

Correct score

1-112%

Fair 8.06Odds 6.00

Banker tip

X276%

Fair 1.32Odds 1.30

Super single

Away DNB63%

Fair 1.60Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Match winner

13.25

X3.10

22.20

Double chance

1X1.62

121.35

X21.30

Both teams to score

Yes1.85

No1.85

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	2	40%	2.48	1.35
Home win	Home win	24%	4.16	2.20
Away win	Away win	40%	2.48	1.35
Double chance	X2	76%	1.32	1.30
Draw no bet	Away DNB	63%	1.60	—
Win either half	Home WEH	52%	1.91	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	74%	1.35	—
Over 2.5	Under 2.5	51%	1.98	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	73%	1.38	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	54%	1.86	1.85
Correct score	1-1	12%	8.06	6.00
Banker	X2	76%	1.32	1.30
Super single	Away DNB	63%	1.60	—

Form & head to head

Moreirense

WLLWD

47%

Form

55%

Attack

27%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)6 / 8

Season W-D-L2-2-3

Clean sheets · failed to score1 · 2

GIL Vicente

WDLLD

33%

Form

36%

Attack

55%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)4 / 5

Season W-D-L2-2-2

Clean sheets · failed to score3 · 2

Team comparison

Form

58%

42%

Attack

60%

40%

Defence

38%

62%

Poisson model

70%

30%

Head to head

29%

71%

Goals

36%

64%

Overall

48%

51%

Head to head

3

Home wins

3

Draws

4

Away wins

25 Jul 26 GIL Vicente 2 - 2 Moreirense

7 Feb 26 Moreirense 1 - 2 GIL Vicente

29 Aug 25 GIL Vicente 2 - 0 Moreirense

6 Apr 25 GIL Vicente 0 - 1 Moreirense

12 Jan 25 GIL Vicente 1 - 0 Moreirense

8 Nov 24 Moreirense 3 - 2 GIL Vicente

2.60 goals per meeting · BTTS in 6 of 10 · over 2.5 in 5 of 10.

Match preview

Moreirense vs GIL Vicente: match preview

Moreirense host GIL Vicente in the Primeira Liga (Regular Season - 8) at Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas on Friday 9 October, kick-off 18:45.

Form guide

Moreirense have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. GIL Vicente have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 league games, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. At home this season Moreirense have 1 win from 3 games, while GIL Vicente have won 0 of 2 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.35 goals for Moreirense and 1.3 for GIL Vicente, 2.65 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 74% chance, over 2.5 49% and both teams to score 54%. The single most likely score is 1-1.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Moreirense won 3, GIL Vicente won 4 and 3 ended level, with 2.6 goals per game and both teams scoring in 6.

Our verdict

Our main pick is 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) at 74% confidence, priced at 1.35. The model also leans towards X2 (76%), Over 1.5 (74%), Under 3.5 (73%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Moreirense 24%, draw 36%, GIL Vicente 40%.
Expected goals: 1.35 vs 1.3.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Moreirense have 1 clean sheets this season; GIL Vicente have 3.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : draw or GIL Vicente.

See more Primeira Liga numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

EE

Written by EkeTips Editorial Team Football Analysis Desk

The EkeTips Editorial Team writes the match previews and predictions published on EkeTips every day. Each preview is built from team form, head-to-head records, goal trends, lineu...

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By EkeTips Editorial Team · Updated 9 Oct 09:01 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?

Our main pick is 1.5 Goals (Over 1.5) with 74% confidence. Win probabilities are Moreirense 24%, draw 36% and GIL Vicente 40%.

Will both teams score in Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance and the most likely score is 1-1.

When and where is Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?

Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:45, Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas, Guimarães.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.