La Liga· Spain · Regular Season - 3

Barcelona

5-2

FT

Rayo Vallecano

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano prediction

📅 Mon 31 Aug 2026 🏟️ Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona 🧑‍⚖️ Francisco Jose Hernandez Maeso

Prediction

● Live data

66%

Barcelona

32%

Draw

3%

Rayo Vallecano

Barcelona 66% · draw 32% · Rayo Vallecano 3%. We pick 1 (Home Win). Most likely score 2-0, over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 36%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won

Home Win · 1

1 Confidence 64%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✓

166%

Fair 1.53Odds —

Home win

✓

Home win66%

Fair 1.53Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win3%

Fair 36.43Odds —

Double chance

✓

1X97%

Fair 1.03Odds —

Draw no bet

✓

Home DNB96%

Fair 1.04Odds —

Win either half

✓

Home WEH86%

Fair 1.16Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.580%

Fair 1.25Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✓

Over 2.558%

Fair 1.73Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.565%

Fair 1.54Odds —

Both teams to score

✕

NG (No)64%

Fair 1.57Odds —

Correct score

✕

2-016%

Fair 6.43Odds —

Banker tip

✓

1X97%

Fair 1.03Odds —

Super single

✓

166%

Fair 1.53Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	66%	1.53	—
Home win	Home win	66%	1.53	—
Away win	Away win	3%	36.43	—
Double chance	1X	97%	1.03	—
Draw no bet	Home DNB	96%	1.04	—
Win either half	Home WEH	86%	1.16	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	80%	1.25	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	58%	1.73	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	65%	1.54	—
BTTS	NG (No)	64%	1.57	—
Correct score	2-0	16%	6.43	—
Banker	1X	97%	1.03	—
Super single	1	66%	1.53	—

Form & head to head

Barcelona

WW

100%

Form

47%

Attack

100%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)7 / 0

Season W-D-L2-0-0

Clean sheets · failed to score2 · 0

Rayo Vallecano

LD

17%

Form

13%

Attack

80%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)2 / 3

Season W-D-L0-1-1

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 0

Team comparison

Form

86%

14%

Attack

78%

22%

Defence

100%

0%

Poisson model

100%

0%

Head to head

93%

7%

Goals

80%

20%

Overall

84%

15%

Head to head

5

Home wins

3

Draws

2

Away wins

31 Aug 26 Barcelona 5 - 2 Rayo Vallecano

22 Mar 26 Barcelona 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano

31 Aug 25 Rayo Vallecano 1 - 1 Barcelona

17 Feb 25 Barcelona 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano

27 Aug 24 Rayo Vallecano 1 - 2 Barcelona

19 May 24 Barcelona 3 - 0 Rayo Vallecano

2.30 goals per meeting · BTTS in 5 of 10 · over 2.5 in 4 of 10.

Match statistics

69%Ball Possession31%

26Total Shots11

9Shots on Goal5

9Corner Kicks5

4Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

3Goalkeeper Saves5

3.04Expected goals (xG)1.21

Key events

12'⚽ S. Camello Normal Goal
19'⚽ Raphinha Normal Goal
21'⚽ Lamine Yamal Normal Goal
45'+2📺 Jules Koundé Goal cancelled
51'⚽ F. Lejeune Own Goal
59'⚽ S. Camello Normal Goal
71'⚽ Raphinha Normal Goal
90'🟨 Adrià Pedrosa Yellow Card
90'⚽ Lamine Yamal Normal Goal

Match preview

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano: match preview

Barcelona host Rayo Vallecano in the La Liga (Regular Season - 3) at Spotify Camp Nou on Monday 31 August, kick-off 20:30. The match finished 5-2.

Form guide

Barcelona have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 2 league games, averaging 3.5 goals scored and 0.0 conceded. Rayo Vallecano have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 2 league games, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. At home this season Barcelona have 1 win from 1 game, while Rayo Vallecano have won 0 of 1 game on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 2.5 goals for Barcelona and 0.5 for Rayo Vallecano, 3.00 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 80% chance, over 2.5 58% and both teams to score 36%. The single most likely score is 2-0.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Barcelona won 5, Rayo Vallecano won 2 and 3 ended level, with 2.3 goals per game and both teams scoring in 5.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Home Win (1) at 64% confidence. The model also leans towards 1X (97%), Home DNB (96%), Home WEH (86%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Barcelona 66%, draw 32%, Rayo Vallecano 3%.
Expected goals: 2.5 vs 0.5.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Barcelona have 2 clean sheets this season; Rayo Vallecano have 0.
API-Football model advice: Winner : Barcelona.

See more La Liga numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 02:43 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?

Our main pick is Home Win (1) with 64% confidence. Win probabilities are Barcelona 66%, draw 32% and Rayo Vallecano 3%.

Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?

Our model gives both teams to score a 36% chance, so the lean is NG (No).

How many goals will there be in Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance and the most likely score is 2-0.

When and where is Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano?

Monday 31 August 2026 at 20:30, Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.