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Premier League· Russia · Regular Season - 11
Rodina Moskva logo

Rodina Moskva

1-2
79'
FC Orenburg logo

FC Orenburg

Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg prediction

📅 Mon 19 Oct 2026 🏟️ Arena Khimki, Khimki 🧑‍⚖️ Inal Tanashev

Prediction

● Live data
15%
Rodina Moskva
34%
Draw
51%
FC Orenburg

Rodina Moskva 15% · draw 34% · FC Orenburg 51%. We pick Over 1.5 (Football Betting Tips | Eketips). Most likely score 0-1, over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 48%.

🎯 Our pick
Football Betting Tips | Eketips · Over 1.5
Over 1.5 @ 1.22 Confidence 8%
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All prediction categories

1X2

251%
Fair 1.96Odds 1.33

Home win

Home win15%
Fair 6.89Odds 2.33

Away win

Away win51%
Fair 1.96Odds 1.33

Double chance

Value
X285%
Fair 1.17Odds 1.40

Draw no bet

Away DNB78%
Fair 1.28Odds —

Win either half

Away WEH68%
Fair 1.47Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

Over 1.573%
Fair 1.36Odds 1.22

Over/Under 2.5

Value
Under 2.552%
Fair 1.93Odds 2.02

Over/Under 3.5

Under 3.574%
Fair 1.36Odds 1.36

Both teams to score

Value
NG (No)52%
Fair 1.92Odds 2.16

Correct score

Value
0-113%
Fair 7.83Odds 8.70

Banker tip

Value
X285%
Fair 1.17Odds 1.40

Super single

Value
NG (No)52%
Fair 1.92Odds 2.16

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Match winner
13.08
X3.48
22.33
Double chance
1X1.64
121.33
X21.40
Goals 2.5
Over1.80
Under2.02
Both teams to score
Yes1.62
No2.16

Value check

MarketPickProb.FairOdds
1X2251%1.961.33
Home winHome win15%6.892.33
Away winAway win51%1.961.33
Double chanceX285%1.171.40Value
Draw no betAway DNB78%1.28—
Win either halfAway WEH68%1.47—
Over 1.5Over 1.573%1.361.22
Over 2.5Under 2.552%1.932.02Value
Under 3.5Under 3.574%1.361.36
BTTSNG (No)52%1.922.16Value
Correct score0-113%7.838.70Value
BankerX285%1.171.40Value
Super singleNG (No)52%1.922.16Value

Form & head to head

Rodina Moskva

LLLDL
7%
Form
11%
Attack
42%
Defence
Scored / conceded (last 5)2 / 11
Season W-D-L1-2-7
Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 4

FC Orenburg

DDLDW
40%
Form
37%
Attack
79%
Defence
Scored / conceded (last 5)7 / 4
Season W-D-L2-6-2
Clean sheets · failed to score3 · 4

Team comparison

Form
14%
86%
Attack
22%
78%
Defence
27%
73%
Poisson model
43%
57%
Head to head
20%
80%
Goals
20%
80%
Overall
24%
75%

Head to head

0
Home wins
0
Draws
1
Away wins
18 Aug 26 Rodina Moskva 1 - 4 FC Orenburg

5.00 goals per meeting · BTTS in 1 of 1 · over 2.5 in 1 of 1.

Match statistics

38%Ball Possession62%
8Total Shots16
4Shots on Goal6
1Corner Kicks4
12Fouls15
6Yellow Cards6
4Goalkeeper Saves3
0.44Expected goals (xG)2.23

Key events

  1. 5'🟨 Dmitriy Rybchinskiy Yellow Card
  2. 14'⚽ Soltmurad Bakaev Normal Goal
  3. 17'🟨 Evgeniy Bolotov Yellow Card
  4. 25'⚽ Jordhy Thompson Penalty
  5. 26'🟨 Jordhy Thompson Yellow Card
  6. 26'🟨 Soltmurad Bakaev Yellow Card
  7. 50'🟨 Artem Maksimenko Yellow Card
  8. 52'🟨 Emil Tsenov Yellow Card
  9. 65'🟨 Damian Puebla Yellow Card
  10. 67'🟨 Rodrigo Becão Yellow Card
  11. 68'🟨 Aleksey Tataev Yellow Card
  12. 71'🟨 Sergey Volkov Yellow Card
  13. 73'⚽ Jordhy Thompson Penalty
  14. 75'🟨 Igor Silva Yellow Card
  15. 77'🟨 Yordy Reyna Yellow Card

Match preview

Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg: match preview

Rodina Moskva host FC Orenburg in the Premier League (Regular Season - 11) at Arena Khimki on Monday 19 October, kick-off 17:30.

Form guide

Rodina Moskva have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 league games, averaging 0.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. FC Orenburg have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. At home this season Rodina Moskva have 0 wins from 4 games, while FC Orenburg have won 0 of 4 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 0.88 goals for Rodina Moskva and 1.72 for FC Orenburg, 2.60 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 73% chance, over 2.5 48% and both teams to score 48%. The single most likely score is 0-1.

Head to head

In their last 1 meetings, Rodina Moskva won 0, FC Orenburg won 1 and 0 ended level, with 5.0 goals per game and both teams scoring in 1.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Football Betting Tips | Eketips (Over 1.5) at 8% confidence, priced at 1.22. The model also leans towards X2 (85%), Away DNB (78%), Under 3.5 (74%).

Key facts

  • Win probabilities: Rodina Moskva 15%, draw 34%, FC Orenburg 51%.
  • Expected goals: 0.88 vs 1.72.
  • Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of the last 1 meetings.
  • Rodina Moskva have 0 clean sheets this season; FC Orenburg have 3.
  • API-Football model advice: Double chance : draw or FC Orenburg.

See more Premier League numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

EE
Written by Football Analysis Desk

The EkeTips Editorial Team writes the match previews and predictions published on EkeTips every day. Each preview is built from team form, head-to-head records, goal trends, lineu...

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By · Updated 19 Oct 19:09 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg?
Our main pick is Football Betting Tips | Eketips (Over 1.5) with 8% confidence. Win probabilities are Rodina Moskva 15%, draw 34% and FC Orenburg 51%.
Will both teams score in Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg?
Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance, so the lean is NG (No).
How many goals will there be in Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance and the most likely score is 0-1.
When and where is Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg?
Monday 19 October 2026 at 17:30, Arena Khimki, Khimki.
Are these predictions guaranteed?
No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.
Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

  • Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
  • Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
  • Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
  • Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.