Serie B· Brazil · Regular Season - 32

Vila Nova

0-0

18'

Cuiaba

Vila Nova vs Cuiaba prediction

📅 Thu 8 Oct 2026 🏟️ Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga, Goiania 🧑‍⚖️ Maguielson Lima Barbosa

Prediction

● Live data

46%

Vila Nova

36%

Draw

17%

Cuiaba

Vila Nova 46% · draw 36% · Cuiaba 17%. We pick Under 2.5 (2.5 Goals). Most likely score 1-0, over 2.5 at 39%, BTTS at 44%.

🎯 Our pick

2.5 Goals · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.50 Confidence 67%

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All prediction categories

1X2

Value

146%

Fair 2.17Odds 3.60

Home win

Value

Home win46%

Fair 2.17Odds 3.60

Away win

Away win17%

Fair 5.72Odds 1.36

Double chance

Value

1X83%

Fair 1.21Odds 1.25

Draw no bet

Home DNB72%

Fair 1.38Odds —

Win either half

Home WEH59%

Fair 1.71Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

Over 1.566%

Fair 1.52Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

Under 2.561%

Fair 1.64Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

Under 3.581%

Fair 1.24Odds —

Both teams to score

NG (No)56%

Fair 1.78Odds 1.67

Correct score

1-014%

Fair 7.03Odds 5.50

Banker tip

Value

1X83%

Fair 1.21Odds 1.25

Super single

Over 1.566%

Fair 1.52Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Match winner

12.10

X3.00

23.60

Double chance

1X1.25

121.36

X21.67

Both teams to score

Yes2.10

No1.67

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	46%	2.17	3.60	Value
Home win	Home win	46%	2.17	3.60	Value
Away win	Away win	17%	5.72	1.36
Double chance	1X	83%	1.21	1.25	Value
Draw no bet	Home DNB	72%	1.38	—
Win either half	Home WEH	59%	1.71	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	66%	1.52	—
Over 2.5	Under 2.5	61%	1.64	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	81%	1.24	—
BTTS	NG (No)	56%	1.78	1.67
Correct score	1-0	14%	7.03	5.50
Banker	1X	83%	1.21	1.25	Value
Super single	Over 1.5	66%	1.52	—

Form & head to head

Vila Nova

WDWWW

87%

Form

64%

Attack

91%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)7 / 1

Season W-D-L17-6-8

Clean sheets · failed to score12 · 8

Cuiaba

WDWLW

67%

Form

82%

Attack

64%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)9 / 4

Season W-D-L11-13-7

Clean sheets · failed to score13 · 12

Team comparison

Form

57%

43%

Attack

44%

56%

Defence

80%

20%

Poisson model

72%

28%

Head to head

29%

71%

Goals

43%

57%

Overall

54%

45%

Head to head

3

Home wins

2

Draws

5

Away wins

14 Jun 26 Cuiaba 1 - 0 Vila Nova

24 Sep 25 Vila Nova 2 - 2 Cuiaba

27 May 25 Cuiaba 1 - 0 Vila Nova

11 May 24 Cuiaba 4 - 2 Vila Nova

18 Apr 24 Vila Nova 2 - 0 Cuiaba

23 Mar 23 Cuiaba 1 - 1 Vila Nova

2.50 goals per meeting · BTTS in 4 of 10 · over 2.5 in 4 of 10.

Match statistics

68%Ball Possession32%

2Total Shots2

0Shots on Goal0

1Corner Kicks0

1Fouls1

0Yellow Cards0

Key events

16'🟨 Eduardo Maciel de Barros Yellow Card

Match preview

Vila Nova vs Cuiaba: match preview

Vila Nova host Cuiaba in the Serie B (Regular Season - 32) at Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga on Thursday 8 October, kick-off 00:30.

Form guide

Vila Nova have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.2 conceded. Cuiaba have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. At home this season Vila Nova have 12 wins from 15 games, while Cuiaba have won 4 of 15 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.35 goals for Vila Nova and 0.9 for Cuiaba, 2.25 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 66% chance, over 2.5 39% and both teams to score 44%. The single most likely score is 1-0.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Vila Nova won 3, Cuiaba won 5 and 2 ended level, with 2.5 goals per game and both teams scoring in 4.

Our verdict

Our main pick is 2.5 Goals (Under 2.5) at 67% confidence, priced at 1.50. The model also leans towards 1X (83%), Under 3.5 (81%), Home DNB (72%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Vila Nova 46%, draw 36%, Cuiaba 17%.
Expected goals: 1.35 vs 0.9.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Vila Nova have 12 clean sheets this season; Cuiaba have 13.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : Vila Nova or draw.

See more Serie B numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 00:48 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?

Our main pick is 2.5 Goals (Under 2.5) with 67% confidence. Win probabilities are Vila Nova 46%, draw 36% and Cuiaba 17%.

Will both teams score in Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?

Our model gives both teams to score a 44% chance, so the lean is NG (No).

How many goals will there be in Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance and the most likely score is 1-0.

When and where is Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?

Thursday 8 October 2026 at 00:30, Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga, Goiania.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.