Serie A· Brazil · Regular Season - 29

Palmeiras

1-0

FT

Bahia

Palmeiras vs Bahia prediction

📅 Fri 9 Oct 2026 🏟️ Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo 🧑‍⚖️ Braulio da Silva Machado

Prediction

● Live data

45%

Palmeiras

35%

Draw

20%

Bahia

Palmeiras 45% · draw 35% · Bahia 20%. We pick 1X (Double Chance). Most likely score 1-1, over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 55%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won

Double Chance · 1X

1X @ 1.15 Confidence 86%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✓

145%

Fair 2.22Odds 5.00

Home win

✓

Home win45%

Fair 2.22Odds 5.00

Away win

✕

Away win20%

Fair 5.02Odds 1.20

Double chance

✓

1X80%

Fair 1.25Odds 1.15

Draw no bet

✓

Home DNB69%

Fair 1.44Odds —

Win either half

✓

Home WEH59%

Fair 1.71Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✕

Over 1.576%

Fair 1.32Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✕

Over 2.551%

Fair 1.95Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✓

Under 3.571%

Fair 1.41Odds —

Both teams to score

✕

GG (Yes)55%

Fair 1.83Odds 1.67

Correct score

✕

1-112%

Fair 8.35Odds 8.00

Banker tip

✓

1X80%

Fair 1.25Odds 1.15

Super single

✓

Home WEH59%

Fair 1.71Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Match winner

11.53

X4.00

25.00

Double chance

1X1.15

121.20

X22.40

Both teams to score

Yes1.67

No2.10

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	1	45%	2.22	5.00	Value
Home win	Home win	45%	2.22	5.00	Value
Away win	Away win	20%	5.02	1.20
Double chance	1X	80%	1.25	1.15
Draw no bet	Home DNB	69%	1.44	—
Win either half	Home WEH	59%	1.71	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	76%	1.32	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.95	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	71%	1.41	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	55%	1.83	1.67
Correct score	1-1	12%	8.35	8.00
Banker	1X	80%	1.25	1.15
Super single	Home WEH	59%	1.71	—

Form & head to head

Palmeiras

WDDWD

60%

Form

50%

Attack

86%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)7 / 2

Season W-D-L16-9-3

Clean sheets · failed to score12 · 4

Bahia

WWWWL

80%

Form

79%

Attack

50%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)11 / 7

Season W-D-L12-10-6

Clean sheets · failed to score8 · 3

Team comparison

Form

43%

57%

Attack

39%

61%

Defence

78%

22%

Poisson model

66%

34%

Head to head

60%

40%

Goals

60%

40%

Overall

57%

42%

Head to head

6

Home wins

1

Draws

3

Away wins

9 Oct 26 Palmeiras 1 - 0 Bahia

5 Apr 26 Bahia 1 - 2 Palmeiras

28 Sep 25 Bahia 1 - 0 Palmeiras

27 Apr 25 Palmeiras 0 - 1 Bahia

20 Nov 24 Bahia 1 - 2 Palmeiras

7 Jul 24 Palmeiras 2 - 0 Bahia

1.80 goals per meeting · BTTS in 3 of 10 · over 2.5 in 3 of 10.

Match statistics

41%Ball Possession59%

25Total Shots10

11Shots on Goal1

7Corner Kicks3

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

1Goalkeeper Saves10

Key events

7'⚽ José Manuel López Normal Goal
61'🟨 Nicolas Acevedo Yellow Card
64'🟨 Khellven Douglas Silva Oliveira Yellow Card
87'🟨 Jean Lucas Yellow Card

Match preview

Palmeiras vs Bahia: match preview

Palmeiras host Bahia in the Serie A (Regular Season - 29) at Nubank Parque on Friday 9 October, kick-off 01:30. The match finished 1-0.

Form guide

Palmeiras have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 league games, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded. Bahia have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 league games, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. At home this season Palmeiras have 9 wins from 13 games, while Bahia have won 6 of 14 games on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.53 goals for Palmeiras and 1.2 for Bahia, 2.73 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 76% chance, over 2.5 51% and both teams to score 55%. The single most likely score is 1-1.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Palmeiras won 6, Bahia won 3 and 1 ended level, with 1.8 goals per game and both teams scoring in 3.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) at 86% confidence, priced at 1.15. The model also leans towards 1X (80%), Over 1.5 (76%), Under 3.5 (71%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Palmeiras 45%, draw 35%, Bahia 20%.
Expected goals: 1.53 vs 1.2.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Palmeiras have 12 clean sheets this season; Bahia have 8.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : Palmeiras or draw.

See more Serie A numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

EE

Written by EkeTips Editorial Team Football Analysis Desk

The EkeTips Editorial Team writes the match previews and predictions published on EkeTips every day. Each preview is built from team form, head-to-head records, goal trends, lineu...

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By EkeTips Editorial Team · Updated 9 Oct 09:01 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Bahia?

Our main pick is Double Chance (1X) with 86% confidence. Win probabilities are Palmeiras 45%, draw 35% and Bahia 20%.

Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Bahia?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Bahia?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance and the most likely score is 1-1.

When and where is Palmeiras vs Bahia?

Friday 9 October 2026 at 01:30, Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.