Serie A· Brazil · Regular Season - 3

Chapecoense-sc

3-3

FT

Coritiba

Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba prediction

📅 Wed 11 Feb 2026 🏟️ Arena Condá, Chapecó 🧑‍⚖️ Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes, Brazil

Prediction

● Live data

30%

Chapecoense-sc

34%

Draw

36%

Coritiba

Chapecoense-sc 30% · draw 34% · Coritiba 36%. We pick X2 (Double Chance). Most likely score 1-1, over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 59%.

🎯 Our pick✓ Won

Double Chance · X2

X2 Confidence 68%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✕

236%

Fair 2.76Odds —

Home win

✕

Home win30%

Fair 3.38Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win36%

Fair 2.76Odds —

Double chance

✓

X270%

Fair 1.42Odds —

Draw no bet

✕

Away DNB55%

Fair 1.82Odds —

Win either half

✕

Home WEH63%

Fair 1.59Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.580%

Fair 1.25Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✓

Over 2.558%

Fair 1.73Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.565%

Fair 1.55Odds —

Both teams to score

✓

GG (Yes)59%

Fair 1.70Odds —

Correct score

✕

1-111%

Fair 9.18Odds —

Banker tip

✓

Over 1.580%

Fair 1.25Odds —

Super single

✕

Under 3.565%

Fair 1.55Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	2	36%	2.76	—
Home win	Home win	30%	3.38	—
Away win	Away win	36%	2.76	—
Double chance	X2	70%	1.42	—
Draw no bet	Away DNB	55%	1.82	—
Win either half	Home WEH	63%	1.59	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	80%	1.25	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	58%	1.73	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	65%	1.55	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	59%	1.70	—
Correct score	1-1	11%	9.18	—
Banker	Over 1.5	80%	1.25	—
Super single	Under 3.5	65%	1.55	—

Form & head to head

Chapecoense-sc

WD

67%

Form

31%

Attack

81%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)5 / 3

Season W-D-L1-1-0

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 0

Coritiba

LW

50%

Form

13%

Attack

88%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)2 / 2

Season W-D-L1-0-1

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 1

Team comparison

Form

57%

43%

Attack

71%

29%

Defence

40%

60%

Poisson model

40%

60%

Head to head

50%

Goals

50%

Overall

51%

48%

Head to head

4

Home wins

2

Draws

4

Away wins

9 Aug 26 Coritiba 2 - 1 Chapecoense-sc

11 Feb 26 Chapecoense-sc 3 - 3 Coritiba

9 Aug 25 Coritiba 0 - 0 Chapecoense-sc

12 Apr 25 Chapecoense-sc 1 - 2 Coritiba

17 Nov 24 Chapecoense-sc 2 - 1 Coritiba

27 Jul 24 Coritiba 1 - 0 Chapecoense-sc

2.90 goals per meeting · BTTS in 6 of 10 · over 2.5 in 6 of 10.

Match statistics

51%Ball Possession49%

21Total Shots13

8Shots on Goal5

6Corner Kicks5

4Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

2Goalkeeper Saves5

1.74Expected goals (xG)1.95

Key events

41'⚽ Breno Lopes Normal Goal
45'⚽ Walter Clar Normal Goal
57'⚽ Breno Lopes Normal Goal
59'⚽ Pedro Rocha Normal Goal
61'🟨 Everton Yellow Card
71'⚽ Eduardo Doma Normal Goal
80'🟨 Tiago Cóser Yellow Card
84'🟨 Higor Meritão Yellow Card
90'+1⚽ Rubens Tadeu Normal Goal

Match preview

Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba: match preview

Chapecoense-sc host Coritiba in the Serie A (Regular Season - 3) at Arena Condá on Wednesday 11 February, kick-off 23:00. The match finished 3-3.

Form guide

Chapecoense-sc have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 2 league games, averaging 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Coritiba have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 2 league games, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. At home this season Chapecoense-sc have 1 win from 1 game, while Coritiba have won 1 of 1 game on the road.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1.75 goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.25 for Coritiba, 3.00 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 80% chance, over 2.5 58% and both teams to score 59%. The single most likely score is 1-1.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Chapecoense-sc won 4, Coritiba won 4 and 2 ended level, with 2.9 goals per game and both teams scoring in 6.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) at 68% confidence. The model also leans towards Over 1.5 (80%), X2 (70%), Under 3.5 (65%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 30%, draw 34%, Coritiba 36%.
Expected goals: 1.75 vs 1.25.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Chapecoense-sc have 0 clean sheets this season; Coritiba have 0.
API-Football model advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Coritiba and +1.5 goals.

See more Serie A numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 02:10 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba?

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) with 68% confidence. Win probabilities are Chapecoense-sc 30%, draw 34% and Coritiba 36%.

Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba?

Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance and the most likely score is 1-1.

When and where is Chapecoense-sc vs Coritiba?

Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 23:00, Arena Condá, Chapecó.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.