Serie A· Brazil · Regular Season - 2

Palmeiras

5-1

FT

Vitoria

Palmeiras vs Vitoria prediction

📅 Thu 5 Feb 2026 🏟️ Arena Barueri, Barueri 🧑‍⚖️ S. Sampaio

Prediction

● Live data

14%

Palmeiras

33%

Draw

53%

Vitoria

Palmeiras 14% · draw 33% · Vitoria 53%. We pick X2 (Double Chance). Most likely score 0-1, over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 55%.

🎯 Our pick✗ Lost

Double Chance · X2

X2 Confidence 70%

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All prediction categories

1X2

✕

253%

Fair 1.89Odds —

Home win

✓

Home win14%

Fair 7.08Odds —

Away win

✕

Away win53%

Fair 1.89Odds —

Double chance

✕

X286%

Fair 1.16Odds —

Draw no bet

✕

Away DNB79%

Fair 1.27Odds —

Win either half

✕

Away WEH72%

Fair 1.39Odds —

Over/Under 1.5

✓

Over 1.580%

Fair 1.25Odds —

Over/Under 2.5

✓

Over 2.558%

Fair 1.73Odds —

Over/Under 3.5

✕

Under 3.565%

Fair 1.55Odds —

Both teams to score

✓

GG (Yes)55%

Fair 1.83Odds —

Correct score

✕

0-110%

Fair 10.04Odds —

Banker tip

✕

X286%

Fair 1.16Odds —

Super single

✕

Under 3.565%

Fair 1.55Odds —

Probability comes from our goal model blended with the API win percentages. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. Value means the bookmaker pays more than the fair price.

Odds

Bookmaker odds · Bet365

Pre-match odds are closed for this fixture.

Value check

Market	Pick	Prob.	Fair	Odds
1X2	2	53%	1.89	—
Home win	Home win	14%	7.08	—
Away win	Away win	53%	1.89	—
Double chance	X2	86%	1.16	—
Draw no bet	Away DNB	79%	1.27	—
Win either half	Away WEH	72%	1.39	—
Over 1.5	Over 1.5	80%	1.25	—
Over 2.5	Over 2.5	58%	1.73	—
Under 3.5	Under 3.5	65%	1.55	—
BTTS	GG (Yes)	55%	1.83	—
Correct score	0-1	10%	10.04	—
Banker	X2	86%	1.16	—
Super single	Under 3.5	65%	1.55	—

Form & head to head

Palmeiras

D

33%

Form

15%

Attack

85%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)2 / 2

Season W-D-L0-1-0

Clean sheets · failed to score0 · 0

Vitoria

W

100%

Form

15%

Attack

100%

Defence

Scored / conceded (last 5)2 / 0

Season W-D-L1-0-0

Clean sheets · failed to score1 · 0

Team comparison

Form

25%

75%

Attack

50%

Defence

0%

100%

Poisson model

0%

Head to head

62%

38%

Goals

50%

Overall

46%

53%

Head to head

6

Home wins

2

Draws

2

Away wins

30 Jul 26 Vitoria 0 - 4 Palmeiras

5 Feb 26 Palmeiras 5 - 1 Vitoria

19 Nov 25 Palmeiras 0 - 0 Vitoria

3 Aug 25 Vitoria 2 - 2 Palmeiras

27 Jul 24 Palmeiras 0 - 2 Vitoria

14 Apr 24 Vitoria 0 - 1 Palmeiras

3.50 goals per meeting · BTTS in 5 of 10 · over 2.5 in 7 of 10.

Match statistics

60%Ball Possession40%

17Total Shots9

8Shots on Goal4

6Corner Kicks4

13Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

2Goalkeeper Saves2

2.01Expected goals (xG)0.80

Key events

24'⚽ Murilo Normal Goal
25'🟨 Nathan Mendes Yellow Card
28'⚽ G. Gomez Normal Goal
45'+2🟨 Allan Elias Yellow Card
45'+6🟨 Jair Ventura Yellow Card
45'⚽ Mauricio Normal Goal
49'🟨 Ramon Yellow Card
52'🟨 Ze Marcos Yellow Card
56'⚽ Dudu Normal Goal
63'⚽ Allan Elias Normal Goal
80'⚽ R. Sosa Normal Goal
90'🟨 Lawan Yellow Card

Match preview

Palmeiras vs Vitoria: match preview

Palmeiras host Vitoria in the Serie A (Regular Season - 2) at Arena Barueri on Thursday 5 February, kick-off 01:30. The match finished 5-1.

Form guide

Palmeiras have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 1 league game, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Vitoria have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 1 league game, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded.

Goals outlook

Our goal model expects about 1 goals for Palmeiras and 2 for Vitoria, 3.00 in total. That gives over 1.5 goals a 80% chance, over 2.5 58% and both teams to score 55%. The single most likely score is 0-1.

Head to head

In their last 10 meetings, Palmeiras won 6, Vitoria won 2 and 2 ended level, with 3.5 goals per game and both teams scoring in 5.

Our verdict

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) at 70% confidence. The model also leans towards X2 (86%), Over 1.5 (80%), Away DNB (79%).

Key facts

Win probabilities: Palmeiras 14%, draw 33%, Vitoria 53%.
Expected goals: 1 vs 2.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Palmeiras have 0 clean sheets this season; Vitoria have 1.
API-Football model advice: Double chance : draw or Vitoria.

See more Serie A numbers on the league statistics page, or read our guides on how our confidence ratings work.

E EkeTips data desk · Updated 8 Oct 02:09 · Data: API-Football · Odds: Bet365· 18+ Bet responsibly

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Vitoria?

Our main pick is Double Chance (X2) with 70% confidence. Win probabilities are Palmeiras 14%, draw 33% and Vitoria 53%.

Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Vitoria?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, so the lean is GG (Yes).

How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Vitoria?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance and the most likely score is 0-1.

When and where is Palmeiras vs Vitoria?

Thursday 5 February 2026 at 01:30, Arena Barueri, Barueri.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Predictions are statistical probabilities based on form, goals and odds. Bet responsibly, 18+ only.

Match analysis

How to read a match analysis

Each match analysis brings together everything we use to make a prediction: win, draw and away probabilities, a side-by-side team comparison, recent form, head-to-head history and live bookmaker odds.

What each section means

Prediction: the model's probability for a home win, draw and away win.
Team comparison: form, attack, defence, goals and head-to-head strength as a percentage split.
Our pick: the recommended market with odds and a confidence rating.
Head to head: recent meetings between the two teams.

For finished matches, the page also shows match statistics and key events such as goals and cards.